Infection rate ‘stabilising’, but do not relax just yet, say experts
CORONAVIRUS cases in the UK continue to rise but appear to have “stabilised”, it emerged yesterday as the public was urged not to take its “foot off the pedal”.
Prof Stephen Powis, NHS England’s national medical director, said recent days had seen a “plateauing” of serious cases in London – Britain’s worst hit area.
NHS data showed there were 4,450 new coronavirus cases in the UK on Friday, following on from 4,244 and 4,324 in the two days prior to that.
It also revealed the number of new daily admissions to hospital has continued to dip below a high from several days ago in London, while cases in the Midlands have increased sharply.
Speaking alongside Michael Gove at the daily Downing Street briefing, Prof Powis said: “The new cases in the UK have continued to rise but in the last few days they have stabilised, it’s really important not to read too much into a day or a few days’ data but if we do reduce social contact, we know from the scientific evidence, we know from the experience of other countries, we will see a reduction in infection rates.”
He continued: “This is not the time to be complacent and to take our foot off the pedal. We need to continue to comply with those instructions because that will translate in the next week or two into a reduction in hospital admissions.”
His warning came as temperatures were expected to climb towards 20C today. Yesterday dog owners were ordered to keep their pets on leads as park authorities battled to uphold social distancing. Most of the public appeared to abide by lockdown laws on Saturday and avoided making day trips, but they have been warned not to be tempted by today’s warmer weather.
Authorities were on high alert as parts of the country enjoyed a full day of sunshine, raising fears crowds would be drawn to parks and beauty spots.
Mr Gove indicated that the majority of the country had chosen to remain at home to help slow the spread of the virus. He told the briefing: “My impression is that people are adhering to the social-distancing guidelines, but I do recognise that the temptation is there.”
There were, however, signs that the public health message had still not cut through to everyone.
Cyclists were spotted riding together in large groups in Regent’s Park, London, while crowds lounged in the sunshine at green spaces including Burgess Park, south London, and on the banks of the Cam in Cambridge.
Gloucestershire Police warned that “going on holiday is not one of the reasonable excuses for leaving home” and there has been “particular concern among some communities” that people who own second homes in the county would visit over Easter.
Derbyshire Police, whose enforcement of the lockdown has generated controversy, said a “full complement” of road policing vehicles were scouring the Peak District to keep visitors away. An update from the force later said that visitor car parks were much emptier than several weeks earlier.
A similar degree of vigilance was on show from Lincolnshire Police, whose officers appeared to be stationed at the roadside to count the number of occupants in passing cars.
“In the space of an hour, 73 vehicles passed one of our patrols at Wainfleet on the A52,” the force wrote online. “Out of the 73, 47 had one occupant, 16 had two occupants and 10 were vans.”
Yesterday, one of the top scientists advising the Government warned the infection rate would remain high for “weeks and weeks” if restrictions on movement were flouted.
Neil Ferguson, a professor from Imperial College London, said the coming days would be critical to limiting the length of the health crisis.
He said the spread of the virus was expected to plateau in the next week to 10 days, but, if people went outside over the weekend, “that moves us to a slightly more pessimistic scenario”.
“We still think things will plateau but we’ll be at quite high levels of infection for weeks and weeks rather than seeing quite a rapid decline of the type seen in China,” he told the BBC.
He said he was “hopeful” the intense measures could be substituted with rapid access to testing and contact tracing in a few weeks’ time.
“We want to move to a situation where – at least by the end of May – we’re able to substitute some less intensive measures, more based on technology and testing, for the complete lockdown we have now,” he said.
Bosses from the Royal Parks, the Olympic Park, Lee Valley and the City of London, which oversees spaces including Hampstead Heath and Epping Forest, released a rare joint statement urging good behaviour. It warned that the parks may face closure if the public went picnicking.
Brockwell Park in south London will be closed today because so many people had flouted social distancing advice, Lambeth Council said.
It tweeted yesterday: “Despite clear advice, over 3,000 people spent today in Brockwell Park. This is unacceptabel. #StayHome”
‘It’s really important not to read too much into a few days’ data but if we do reduce social contact… we will see a reduction in infection rates’