There is light at the end of the tunnel
This was the week in which things finally started to change. Boris Johnson returned to work and announced that we are “past the peak of the disease”. The overriding goal remains keeping the R (or R0) reproduction number below 1, but the PM will soon be laying out a plan for the gradual liberation of parts of the economy and society – and today we can reveal that primary schools will hopefully return in June. Other schools will come later, assuming that the R doesn’t surge back up. Restarting fertility treatment was another welcome step in the same direction, although it should never have been stopped in the first place. The Health Secretary has also been able to report that Britain is not only meeting its testing target but surpassing it on his measure; crucially, Britain is shooting up the testing league tables. These are cautious grounds for optimism; some light, at least, at the end of the tunnel.
That said, the UK Government is still, inevitably, being very cautious. It must ensure that it doesn’t reopen the country too slowly and, in doing so, wreak extreme damage to the economy and society. We need to learn from the experience of others, including Sweden, where social distancing has been far less wide-ranging and yet where the R0 now appears smaller than 1. Denmark and the Czech Republic have said that partially lifting their own rules has not led to a second surge. Ditto others. It’s probably too early to tell, because it takes time for new infections to feed into the calculation of the R number. Nevertheless, Britain must watch and take note, and if our partners demonstrate that restrictions can be eased much more quickly without a spike then the UK should emulate them.
The Government also needs always to remember the private sector. Despite the massive help from the Treasury, many businesses are going to be wiped out: the longer this goes on, the higher the casualty rate. Is the Government thinking enough about the small entrepreneurs, the self-employed – the backbone of Tory capitalism? Throughout this crisis, the conversation has been focused on what the state can do, sometimes to the exclusion of labs and businesses who have proved crucially useful. The key to the full revival of Britain will be reopening the private sector and unleashing its creativity as soon as we safely can.