Funeral firms told to expect up to 85,000 extra deaths in summer
FUNERAL directors have been told to expect anywhere between 33,000 and 85,000 extra deaths by the end of the September, according to new analysis.
It emerged after the National Association of Funeral Directors (NAFD) commissioned research to predict what effect easing restrictions could have on the country’s mortality rate.
The modelling also found even if the Government controls the spread of the virus at a national level some regions could experience a “significant second peak”. But if opening up is not managed well, that second spike could be worse than the first in some areas. Andrew Lilico, of Europe Economics, who led the research, predicted what could happen if the lockdown was firstly successful – where those with Covid-19 infected fewer than one person each.
He then analysed what could transpire if easing restrictions was less effective and the national rate of infection rose to 1.5 people being infected by each carrier.
“The modelling suggests that 85,000 people could die post-lockdown if the Government fails to keep the rate of infection below one,” Mr Lilico told The Sunday Telegraph. “But if lifting lockdown was successful, then about 33,000 people could still die.”
He analysed published data and forecasts from Oxford University, Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine to predict how coronavirus behaves, its infection fatality rate, as well as the effect herd immunity and antibodies have on protecting the public.
Jon Levett, NAFD chief executive, said: “What is striking about the modelling is that different parts of the UK and different regions within England would see significant second peaks with even a successful lifting of lockdown – most notably Scotland, Wales, and the North East and Yorkshire.
“If lockdown is lifted less successfully, the impact is even more striking, with the potential for those regions to see a second peak higher than the first.
The North West and South West would also be significantly affected by a less than successful lifting of lockdown, while London, the East of England, Midlands and Northern Ireland are predicted to have a far lower impact.”
The association has repeatedly asked the Government to release its modelling data on deaths so it can better prepare for the demand for funerals.
However, ministers have not provided that data, despite funeral directors saying they are struggling to cope with the recent rise in funerals.
Mr Lilico added: “We hope the models will assist funeral directors in making their business decision and in providing the best service to bereaved people over the next few months.”