Lockdown could be eased on regional basis as analysis reveals hotspot areas
THE Government is likely to gradually introduce regional variations in England’s lockdown measures, an analysis of coronavirus case numbers and the UK’s exit strategy suggests.
New data shows the incidence of the disease varies widely across the country, with Cumberland, Durham, Herefordshire and Norfolk now having 12 times as many cases of Covid-19 as counties including Devon, Cornwall and Dorset.
The research was carried out by Edge Health, a provider of data analysis to the NHS in England, exclusively for The Sunday Telegraph.
Case numbers are estimated by a model that uses confirmed hospital cases as its base measure. The actual incidence of disease is likely to be higher for all counties but differences between them remain constant.
George Batchelor, a co-founder of Edge Health, said the data pointed to regional flexibility in the lockdown measures being “critical” to the Government’s exit strategy.
“As seen in countries like Singapore, the risk of a surge in new cases can happen even when the virus is under control,” he said.
“These surges, like the increase in cases in the North West of England, tend to be localised. If they are detected early, they can more easily be brought under some control. This requires a flexible regional response.”
The Government is using both case numbers and “R” values to judge the effectiveness of its social distancing measures, which were partially relaxed for the first time last week.
The R values – which indicate how fast the virus is spreading – also show distinct regional variations.
Rs calculated by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine suggest the fastest growth area in England is the East Midlands, where R is calculated to sit between 0.8 and 1.2. Although the South West has the lowest case numbers, the R value for the region is also higher relative to others, sitting between 0.6 and 1.2.
The estimates for R are given as a range because pinning them down precisely is not scientifically possible. They also lag real-time cases by about 10 days.
For these reasons, the London School says they should be “considered indicative only”.
Although ministers appear loath to admit it, the Government’s official Covid-19 recovery strategy suggests social distancing measures might vary within England to deal with regional differences.
“Restrictions may be adjusted by the devolved administrations at a different pace in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland because the level of infection – and therefore the risk – will differ. Similarly in England, the Government may adjust restrictions in some regions before others: a greater risk in Cornwall should not lead to disproportionate restrictions in Newcastle if the risk is lower,” it states.
The document suggests regional variations in the lockdown measures will come as the data it is collecting becomes more precise – something most expect by mid to late June.
It adds: “The Government anticipates targeting future restrictions more precisely than at present, where possible, for example relaxing measures in parts of the country that are lower-risk, but continuing them in higher-risk locations when the data suggests this is warranted.”
‘Surges, like the increase in cases in the North West, tend to be localised’