Poverty and stigma trap Pakistan’s poor in hotspots
Mohammad Alim Khan ducked under a cordon and stepped out of his sealed neighbourhood into temporary freedom, after managing to persuade a policeman his errand was a legitimate emergency.
For the past three days the security guard had found himself locked down and hemmed in by roadblocks after streets around his home near Mohammadi Chowk were declared a coronavirus hotspot.
Dozens of such locales have been declared sealed across Pakistan in recent weeks as the world’s sixth most populous country has tried to switch tactics against its Covid-19 outbreak.
Having found a nationwide lockdown in the early days of the pandemic too costly, officials are instead trying more targeted “smart lockdowns”: aiming at virus hotbeds, while allowing most of the economy to resume work.
“It’s good that they have sealed the area, it’s for our own safety. It’s difficult, but it’s for our good,” Mr Khan told The Sunday Telegraph as he set out to get medicines.
Pakistan’s prime minister, Imran Khan, has touted the scheme as a solution to his nation’s quandary of how it can afford to tackle the disease.
While the country locked down in mid-March, restrictions were eased during May, even as cases rose, because the government said the economic damage being wrought on the poor was unsustainable. In a country where millions earn a subsistence wage from daily labouring, locking down the economy would starve huge numbers, the former cricketer has warned. Like many countries, the Western playbook of containing the virus has proved futile in Pakistan.
Under the new “smart lockdown” scheme, hotspots qualify when cases reach more than 1.5 cases per thousand, a similar rate to Leicester where the UK Government has this week also imposed a mini lockdown. Hotspot residents are given 24 or 48 hours notice to prepare and then, unlike those in Leicester, they are sealed in for between 10 to 15 days in an attempt to break the spread in the wider community.
As well as movement in and out being restricted, residents are supposed to maintain social distancing, not attend gatherings, and keep the sick and elderly inside. Only one person per household is supposed to do the shopping, and only food shops and chemists are allowed to open.
Residents differed on how strictly the rules were being enforced.
“It’s not that sealed. Look at the traffic and people,” said Anis Kiyani, a shopkeeper, pointing at the stream of motorbikes passing by. He said the checkpoints were not always manned.
Yet another nearby shopkeeper, a grocer called Ayaz Ahmed, said the restrictions had been tight enough to wipe out three-quarters of his trade. “All of the roads are closed, everything is closed. Things we need everyday we cannot get. Poor people are dying, but for rich people it makes no difference whether there’s a lockdown or not.”
Police commanders guarding the cordons said people with valid reasons were allowed out, for example in the case of an emergency, or if they needed to get medicine.
Asst Supt Beenish Uzzair, who has five sealed areas in her jurisdiction, said: “It’s very difficult to tell people not to do what they want to do.”
Many people were being kept from their jobs. “But if you start making exceptions, then everyone will come up and try to get out.”
Sub inspector Asad Majid said his men enforcing the cordon were constantly confronted with the poverty the restrictions had wrought.
“The residents argue with us a lot, because it’s really tough for the poor people to be bound in their houses with no work. These people are so much affected, because construction sites and other things are closed.
“It’s very difficult to argue with them. We listen to them, if they have a valid reason they come out, if not, they stay. It’s better to have a smart lockdown than a total lockdown though.”
Pakistan’s caseload and death toll began to accelerate in June in a rush of infections blamed on socialising and gatherings during Eid celebrations at the end of Ramadan.
The World Health Organisation on
June 6 suggested its own compromise to Pakistan’s efforts to balance public health and economic survival: a fortnightly on-off cycle of lockdowns. But the government resisted the suggestion, and Mr Khan has said smart lockdowns are the only option.
One senior Pakistan official involved in the country’s coronavirus response said the clampdowns were proving effective. “Whenever we seal areas, we see cases fall nearby”.
International health officials told The Telegraph they were more sceptical. The disease is already too widespread for piecemeal lockdowns to suppress it, they fear.
“Everyone knows they’re not sealed completely and the effect will be limited,” said one.
Another added: “From what I know, there is nothing proving the success of smart lockdowns.”
Any effect the smart lockdowns might be having is difficult to interpret
‘The residents argue with us a lot. It’s really tough for the poor people to be bound in their houses with no work’
because of the country’s incomplete disease figures. A drop in daily case tallies and death tolls in the past week has been hailed by ministers as a sign the situation is getting better.
The country of around 220million has registered 225,000 cases and 4,619 deaths, and has appeared to avoid the terrifying acceleration in disease seen in parts of Europe and Latin America.
But at the same time, the number of tests being carried out is also down, and stigma around Covid-19 means large numbers of Pakistanis are thought to avoid getting tested. Fear that those branded positive will be forced into quarantine, turned away from hospital when sick, or in the worst case be denied a proper public burial means many prefer not to know.
The result is that official figures are thought to be a tiny fraction of the true picture. “No one can say the data has ever presented a realistic situation of the pandemic in Pakistan,” said one international official.