Winter surge could kill tens of thousands, Sage believes

A WINTER surge in coronavirus cases would kill up to 85,000 people in a “reasonable worst-case” scenario, leaked Sage papers have revealed.

Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, has suggested restrictions may not be eased over Christmas to avoid an increase in the number of Covid-19 cases.

In a document signed off by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies at the end of July, which has now surfaced, experts reported a “reasonable worst-case planning assumption” would be up to 81,000 excess deaths attributable to Covid-19 between July and next March in England and Wales. There could be 2,600 deaths in Scotland and 1,900 in Northern Ireland.

The document states that in this scenario, the Government’s tracing, isolation and quarantine measures will only be 40 per cent effective in reducing the spread of the virus outside households, and that stricter social-distancing rules might be brought in to mitigate this.

However, schools would likely remain open.

Prof Carl Heneghan, from Oxford University, said some of the assumptions made in the model were “implausible” and it assumed “we’ve learnt nothing from the first wave”.

However, Tobias Ellwood, the Conservative MP, said “draconian action” could be required. “This is an enduring emergency,” he said. “Until there’s a vaccine this is the new normal that we’ve got to get used to.”

Prof Neil Ferguson, the head of Imperial College London’s Covid-19 response team and one of the architects of the original lockdown, said we were facing “a difficult few months”.

“People will be inside more and there’ll be less opportunity to socialise outside. Respiratory viruses probably transmit a little bit better in winter months,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

Mr Hancock warned this week that other countries were already experiencing a second wave. “Cases go up again, and we have to use very extensive local lockdowns or take further national action,” he told The Times.

His comments come as local Covid-19 restrictions were eased in northern England, which will allow social gatherings between two homes from Wednesday in Bolton, Stockport, Trafford, Burnley, Hyndburn and parts of Bradford, Calderdale and Kirklees.

Mr Hancock said that a second wave could be “avoidable but it’s not easy”. But when asked whether there would be rules to allow more people to visit one another over Christmas, Mr Hancock said: “The danger of a rule like that is that it increases the spread of the disease.”

81,000

The number of deaths that could occur due to Covid-19 between July and next March in England and Wales in a worst-case scenario