Trump’s star is back on the rise as virus cases continue to fall
POLLSTERS and party insiders are saying it is not too late for Donald Trump to overcome his poll deficit and win the US election on Nov 3 as daily coronavirus case numbers drop and an economic recovery begins to take hold.
The president has trailed his rival Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential nominee, throughout the summer but as the campaign enters its final stretch the polls are beginning to tighten. Mr
Biden leads Mr Trump on nationwide polls by around seven points, according to a tracker averaging results from the political website Real Clear Politics, down from 10 points in mid-June.
His lead in the all-important battleground states has also narrowed. Strategists generally agree that going into the final two months of the race the Biden camp will be the happier judging by the numbers alone, with the president still needing to close the gap.
But memories of 2016, when Hillary
Clinton’s consistent poll lead proved illusory on voting day, either because the surveys were not accurate or because minds changed near the end, hang over this year’s race.
Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said: “While there are fewer persuadable voters than four years ago, there are enough of them with over two months to go that Trump could thread the needle again.”
Much watched are the so-called
“fundamentals” that underpin the race, in particular the state of the economy and the pandemic. Or, more to the point, how voters view both, whatever the realities of the situation.
A core part of Mr Biden’s strategy has been to frame November’s choice around which candidate is better trusted to handle the Covid-19 crisis, knowing that about two thirds of Americans disapprove of how Mr Trump has dealt with it.
Coronavirus cases surged in America over the summer, something that is seen as a contributing factor to Mr Biden’s lead. But since mid-July they have been dropping, down from a peak of around 75,000 cases a day to 45,000.
It is impossible to predict what will come before November – whether an autumn surge will hit as feared or, instead, case numbers continue to drop.
But as they have fallen so too has concern over the pandemic, politically benefiting Mr Trump.
Voters trust Mr Trump over Mr Biden to help recover the economy from the devastation of the pandemic, thanks to his businessman image cemented by decades of property deals and series of The Apprentice.
There have already been a recordbreaking jump in jobs created as lockdown ended. This is a reflection of the huge drops in employment and is far from rectifying that initial damage, but gives the president enough to declare the “great American comeback” is on.
Larry Kudlow, Mr Trump’s top White House economic adviser, said in his convention speech this week: “There’s a housing boom, there’s an auto boom, a manufacturing boom.”
Mr Trump has repeatedly pointed to the third quarter economic growth figures that will drop in the weeks before election day, believing they will back up his case on the recovery.
Other uncertainties remain: how Mr Biden will perform in the three head-to-head debates; whether more violent clashes are seen in US cities, accentuating Mr Trump’s “law and order” message; the unknown impact of a huge rise in postal ballot use.
One prominent strategist from the Democrats’ progressive wing fears the worst. “The Republican Party and Trump have shown they are by God willing to do whatever. I mean they just held a convention at the White House,” the source told The Sunday Telegraph.
Asked if they thought Mr Trump could still win, the source replied “yeah”, preceding that word with an expletive.