Mapping the route that will take us out of lockdown Third step: mid-May

Johnson to stress caution and not a ‘big bang’ return to freedom as the nation prepares to relax rules

WHEN Boris Johnson sets out the country’s “road to recovery” tomorrow afternoon, his mantra will be one of caution and not a “big bang” return to freedom.

After thrashing out the final details of the roadmap at a Covid-S committee meeting today, the Prime Minister will present a blueprint for approval by the full Cabinet tomorrow morning.

He will address MPs at around 3pm and four hours later the nation in a press conference from Downing Street.

A number of “easements” in the document have already been signed off, including the full reopening of schools, limited resumption of care home visits indoors, socialising with one other person outdoors and the later mixing of two households in parks.

However, following a week of intense speculation over the speed and scale of unwinding restrictions, senior sources stress the blueprint will not be finalised until this afternoon at the earliest.

Such is the secrecy surrounding the document, said to run to more than 50 pages, that only the so-called “quad” of Cabinet ministers – Mr Johnson, Rishi Sunak, Matt Hancock and Michael Gove – have seen it.

Despite the determination to keep the details under wraps, The Sunday Telegraph has been told that the roadmap will be divided into at least four steps, or phases, spaced roughly a month apart and running until at least the end of June.

Insiders stress that as part of the “cautious approach” to reopening, sufficient time is needed between each easement to assess the impact on infections.

Within each phase, there will be only limited references to dates, with timelines expressed more as aspirations.

Here, we piece together an outline of what the roadmap is expected to look like, although the final details could still change over the next 24 hours.

First step: March 8

Schools will reopen fully, despite resistance from nine of the country’s teacher unions, which want a staggered return for secondaries.

While schools argue the requirement to test all pupils when they first return makes the time frame logistically difficult, a Government source says: “The ambition has always been to make sure all kids go back at the same time.”

Care home visits indoors will resume, with residents able to hold hands with an individual friend or relative – subject to testing and appropriate use of personal protective equipment.

Rules prohibiting household mixing outdoors will also be relaxed slightly, to enable two people to socialise outdoors, such as for a coffee or picnic. Toward the end of the first phase, these restrictions will be eased again to allow two different households to meet in gardens or parks over Easter.

Outdoor sports, such as golf and tennis, are also expected to return between March 8 and Easter, with a maximum of two people.

Discussions are ongoing about reintroducing the “rule of six”, allowing up to six people from different households to mix outdoors.

Earlier this week, Whitehall officials suggested self-catering holiday lets and hotels could be allowed over Easter.

The Telegraph understands that the “stay at home” message will remain. A senior Government source said they did not expect indoor mixing between households for at least the first month: “The focus to reunite with families and friends is outdoors to begin with.”

Second step: early April

Sources suggest that the second phase will begin in April, with non-essential retail among the sectors to reopen.

Universities could also open, under one scenario discussed this week, along with further education.

A measured reopening of domestic holidays could also be considered, with people limited to self-catering breaks within their own household.

Mark Drakeford, the First Minister for Wales, confirmed on Friday that he was looking at self-contained accommodation for Easter. Wales went into lockdown a fortnight before England.

By April 15, the Government will have hit another milestone by offering a first Covid-19 jab to 32 million people aged over 50, a group that accounts for the vast majority of Covid deaths.

Ministers have discussed the possibility that by the end of April hospitality venues could begin to reopen outdoors, although there has been no official confirmation of this.

However, the Government has been warned that the hospitality industry stands to lose more than £6 billion in revenue if pubs and restaurants are not allowed to fully reopen before June.

Analysis compiled by UK Hospitality adds that should pubs and restaurants be limited to outdoor only settings in May and June, the Government also stands to lose £1.5billion from depleted tax receipts and hundreds of thousands of workers continuing to be on furlough.

Kate Nicholls, the trade body’s chief executive, said: “The vaccination rollout and the drop in infections is pointing toward a safe environment from early April, and this is when we should get our businesses open and customers back through the doors.

“A May reopening risks the failure of businesses that are only just hanging on, and will be a massive blow to the UK’s economy.”

By mid-May, pubs and restaurants could have opened indoors, with former restrictions such as the 10pm curfew and the substantial table meal scrapped.

At this point, the first dose protection to the over-50s will have taken effect.

Hairdressers are also likely to be among the easements in this wave, although discussions were held by officials this week about an earlier opening, possibly in late April.

Beauticians and other close contact services are also likely to reopen, although it has been suggested these may be later than hairdressers, due to the higher risk of transmission.

Fourth step: June

The easements expected in June are less clear, but ministers are hopeful that more travel within the UK could be possible should case numbers reach the lows of last summer. This could mean a fuller reopening of the hospitality and hotel sectors.

Depending on case numbers and the impact of the vaccine on transmission, it is expected that some indoor mixing between households may resume.

July and beyond

As the vaccination programme reaches its final stage, ministers and scientists hope infection rates will have returned to the levels of last summer.

At this point, greater relaxations for indoor mixing are likely, although official sources stressed this week that details were far less certain beyond the initial phases of the roadmap.

Social distancing rules, such as the one-metre-plus rule and wearing masks in indoor public spaces and on public transport, are still expected to remain until the whole population is vaccinated.

Government sources have claimed that the roadmap is unlikely to set a date for international travel restrictions to be lifted as there is still considerable concern over foreign variants.

However, ministers are increasingly optimistic that foreign holidays could be possible by the summer, with talks now taking place over an internationally recognised vaccine certification scheme.