France summons Dunkirk spirit as infections leap
Surging cases in the port city and Nice reveal what the rest of the country may face amid slow jab rollout
The French city of Dunkirk had long prided itself on being the main port of entry for Britons into Europe, and welcoming scores of tourists to its beaches and wine shops. But this month, its proximity to Britain, where a more contagious variant of Covid-19 has spread a third wave of infections like wildfire, quickly triggered a health crisis.
“We’re an important point of entry into Europe for Britain. This time it did not work out well for us,” Thomas Roussez, from the city hall, said. “We did not manage to detect [the variant] early enough. When we realised it, we were already on very high rates.”
Attention in France is now fixed on Dunkirk and similar hotspots such as Nice. Panicked health officials are warning overwhelmed hospitals and a rising epidemic are a window into what is to come for the rest of the country as the vaccination programme is in disarray. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has faced increasing pressure to bring in new restrictions just as the UK is planning for its grand reopening. It is a conundrum present across much of the Continent.
Dunkirk’s first cases of the so-called Kent variant are believed to have reached the city through truck drivers.
Quickly, the city of 90,000 had the highest incidence rate of Covid-19 in the country. Dunkirk’s rate has risen from 658 to 901 cases per 100,000 in a week, more than four times the national average.
One person dies every day of the virus. Funeral homes take twice as long to ready bodies for burial. The city’s main hospital reached its maximum capacity weeks ago.
“We still have not at all reached the peak. We estimate that will be in two weeks,” said Dr Paupard, who heads the doctors’ commission at Dunkirk’s hospital.
Nice joined Dunkirk in being put under a strict weekend lockdown, the first time such a measure has applied locally in France. In a Thursday address, prime minister Jean Castex asked local officials in 10 other areas where cases are rising to propose plans for tighter restrictions, in a desperate bid to avoid a third national lockdown.
Both Dunkirk and Nice were caught off guard by the speed of the spread of the more contagious British variant, and experts say they offer a glimpse into the catastrophic scenario France could find itself in by springtime, raising questions over Macron’s decision to avoid a lockdown last month. Initially, it seemed as though Macron’s Covid gamble had paid off.
Daily infections were falling and the president was enjoying approval ratings significantly higher than those of his predecessors. But modelling by France’s research body Institut Pasteur published on Wednesday showed that without new restrictions, hospital admissions would skyrocket from 1,300 to 10,000 per day by May.
In January, 52 per cent of French people thought the government’s decision to avoid a lockdown was a mistake, according to a Harris Interactive poll. The scientific council advising the French government on public health strategy during the epidemic had recommended a strict lockdown in late January, but its report was not made public until last week.
While Britain has provided a roadmap for the lifting of restrictions and a return to normality by the summer, France is likely to face a rise in Covid-19 infections and a lockdown.
Several mayors, including in the northern cities of Lille and Calais, have come out in favour of at least localised lockdowns. On Friday, the deputy mayor of Paris lashed out at “halfmeasures” such as the weekend lockdowns, which were “highly restrictive” but would have “little impact on the health situation”.
But Paris will aim to avoid a strict lockdown at all costs, Emmanuel Gregoire said.
At its current speed, one of the slowest in Europe, France’s vaccination campaign will not provide much-needed respite quickly enough.
Only 4 per cent of French people have received a first dose of the vaccine so far, and 2 per cent a second.
In the meantime, doctors in Dunkirk are trying to contain the epidemic. “We are clearly no longer on a wave, we are on what we can call a tidal current,” said Dr Christophe Couturier, the emergency director at the hospital.
Opinion polls show about 58 per cent of French citizens say they won’t take a jab, making it the most vaccine-averse country in the world.
‘We still have not at all reached the peak. We estimate that will be in two weeks’