How variants are fuelling mainland Europe’s third wave

Much of mainland Europe is now firmly in the grip of the more contagious variant of Covid-19 originally discovered in Kent, sending countries back into lockdown.

The data on the spread of variants shows more than 75 per cent of Covid-19 cases on the continent in the first week of March were found to be the Kent variant, up from about 14 per cent at the end of last year.

This data is now being analysed by the Government. Over the next few weeks, it will help ministers place countries into one of three “traffic light” categories that will determine the level of quarantine and tests holidaymakers will have to do on their return to Britain.

Ministers will pursue a “cautious approach”, as the last thing they want is for tourists to return to Britain carrying a potentially vaccine-resistant variant of Covid-19. They have also promised to confirm in advance whether leisure travel can resume on May 17, the third stage of the road map out of restrictions on freedoms.

The rules will state there will be no isolation requirement for travel from countries in the new green category, although pre-departure and postarrival tests will still be needed. The red and amber restrictions will remain as they are now, with the requirement to enter quarantine or self-isolation upon return.

For Europe, the picture is relatively bleak and it will take a substantial improvement before countries can find a spot on the green list.

According to data published by the CoVariants project, which compiles international open-access genomic analysis, about three per cent were identified as the South African and Brazilian variants – strains scientists fear could be more resistant to Covid-19 vaccines – compared to less than one per in the UK over the same period. Countries will now be trying to trace their contacts, to stop the spread.

President Emmanuel Macron, the French president, blamed the Kent variant – commonly referred to as the British or UK variant – for the resurgence of infections when he announced a third national lockdown on Thursday. Under new rules, schools will move to remote learning and non-essential shops will shut.

Daily cases have risen by 15 per cent in the last week in France, and the CoVariants data shows that about 60 per cent of sequenced infections at the beginning of March were detected as the Kent variant. In Germany an even higher proportion of cases analysed in the same period – 75 per cent – came back positive for the Kent variant.

This week leaders of two of the country’s most infected states as well as the German intensive care association called on Angela Merkel, the Chancellor, to impose a national lockdown, as confirmed cases climbed to more than 17,000 a day.

On March 23 Ms Merkel described the Kent variant as “a whole new pandemic” given its heightened transmissibility.

Similarly Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Poland and Belgium all saw more than half of sequenced cases in the week ending March 8 come back positive for the Kent variant.

A relatively smaller but increasing fraction of cases in Europe are being detected as the South African and Brazilian variants.

In Britain only 0.2 per cent of the 21,000 cases sequenced in the week ending March 8 came back as the South Africa variant, while 0.9 per cent were confirmed as the Brazilian strain.

Instead the overwhelming majority of the UK’s sequenced cases are still being identified as the Kent variant – just under 98 per cent.

Yet in the UK’s favour its vaccination programme has now reached about 48 per cent of the entire population.

In both France and Germany this figure stands at just 12 per cent.