Only eight countries set to qualify for travel green list

THE United States, Gibraltar, Israel and Iceland will be among only eight countries on the Government’s green list for safe travel from May 17, according to modelling for the industry.

The analysis, based on the Government’s four “risk” criteria for travel, suggests the only other countries will be Ireland, Malta, Australia and New Zealand – with the last two currently closed to foreign arrivals.

The research, by Robert Boyle, a former strategy chief at BA and its owner, IAG, confirms government indications that only a handful of “green” countries are likely to be approved for quarantine-free holidays when ministers plan to lift the ban on non-essential foreign travel on May 17.

Significantly, nearly all of Europe is either on the amber list, requiring home quarantine of 10 days, or even the red list, where arrivals have to quarantine in a hotel, at a cost of £1,750 a person.

Among the countries that should be red, based on the criteria, are France, Turkey, Holland, Croatia, Sweden, Belgium and Luxembourg. However, for political and economic reasons, they are unlikely to be classed as such.

The research places the big tourist markets of Spain, Greece, Italy and Cyprus on amber, owing to their high Covid rates, but it says they could still turn green by the Government’s review date of June 28.

“Last year, the Spanish and Greek islands were given a lower-risk rating than the mainland, and that could happen again this year,” said the report, which is circulating within the industry.

The research ranks 52 countries on the Government’s criteria of vaccination rates, Covid prevalence, the extent of variants and capacity for genome sequencing of the virus. It then synthesises that information into a single table.

Only five countries – the US, Israel, Gibraltar, UAE and Malta – pass the green benchmark of 30 per cent of their populations single-vaccinated, but this unfairly excludes countries with no community spread, such as Australia and New Zealand.

Only seven countries are green based on being having fewer than 50 cases per one million people: China, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Israel, Iceland and Gibraltar.

Turkey, Luxembourg, Finland, Belgium, France, Holland and South Africa come out worst for variant cases per million, with Slovenia, Slovakia, Japan, Bulgaria, Australia and New Zealand among the lowest. Those best for sequencing are Holland, Ireland and Luxembourg.