Covid deaths are now less than the average for flu and pneumonia

FOR the past month, daily Covid-19 deaths in England and Wales have been lower than the typical number of people dying from the flu, data shows.

Since late March there have been fewer Covid casualties each day than the five-year average of deaths from influenza and pneumonia, which has normally stood at 86 during the months of March and April, according to preliminary figures published by the ONS.

As of the week ending April 16 there have been on average 29 daily deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the victim’s death certificate, as opposed to an average of 80 involving influenza and pneumonia at the same point in the year between 2015 and 2019.

While Covid deaths are now lower, the data also shows how they massively surpassed typical flu deaths during the worst days of the second wave, and continued to remain significantly higher over a month into England’s third national lockdown.

On January 19, 1,372 deaths mentioned Covid on the death certificate, a tenfold increase on the average number of flu deaths at that time of year of 133.

Even a month later, by February 19, Covid daily deaths stood at 407, four times higher than the five-year average of influenza and pneumonia deaths of 107 at the same time of year.

Nonetheless the ONS data reveals the extent to which the spread of the virus has been brought to heel. Last week Sarah Walker, professor of medical statistics and epidemiology at Oxford University and chief investigator of the ONS’s Covid-19 Infection Survey, said Britain had “moved from a pandemic to an endemic situation”, where the virus is circulating at a low, controllable rate.

Similarly UK scientific advisers have previously warned that the UK is unlikely to eradicate Covid-19 completely even with the vaccine. Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, told MPs in October: “As management becomes better and you get vaccination, that would decrease the chance of infection, and this starts to look more like annual flu.”

Historic data on influenza and pneumonia also produced by the ONS shows how the death toll from Covid without widespread vaccination has drastically overshadowed previous annual flu fatalities. There were 86,068 deaths occurring in 2020 where Covid was mentioned on the death certificate – higher than every single annual flu death toll over 100 years.

Only 1918, the year of Spanish Flu, surpasses that figure, with 172,149 deaths involving influenza and pneumonia.