Poll predicts local Tory gains but no more inroads into ‘red wall’

LABOUR will fail to seize any councils from the Tories in this week’s local elections as Sir Keir Starmer struggles to capitalise on Boris Johnson’s sleaze allegations, an exclusive poll reveals.

The Tories will take control of 13 more councils including two from Labour, which is more than double the six that Labour are expected to gain, according to the poll of 11,506 voters in 123 English district councils.

Conservatives are set to seize Amber Valley and Harlow from Labour and strengthen their hand in the Midlands but will not make any more inroads into the “red wall” of northern England, the survey found.

Labour is forecast to take six councils from no overall control – Adur, Bristol, Burnley, Kirklees, Wirral and Worcester – but none directly from the Tories in any of their head-to-head battles.

It will be seen as a positive result for the Tories as the elections are concentrated in traditional Labour territory and are being fought from a high water mark set by Theresa May in 2017 during her honeymoon period.

“Labour would be hoping for a better result than this. Many of the councils up for election are traditionally Labourleaning, and so Labour should have been expected to lead there,” said Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, which conducted the survey with pollster Find Out Now.

“The Conservatives have been in Government for 11 years and are now being battered by a bunch of sleaze allegations. If the public were turning against them, the opposition ought to win ward after ward from an unpopular government. That doesn’t seem likely.”

The Tories are predicted to gain 311 wards to Labour’s 331. It means the Tories would end the night controlling 40 councils, a gain of 13, and Labour would hold 58, up from 52.

It is likely to be a bad night for Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats as they are set to lose 124 wards, down to a net 727, although the party will gain one council – St Albans, also a parliamentary seat it seized from the Tories in the 2019 election. Sir Ed is predicted to end the night with seven councils.

“One comfort for Keir Starmer is that the Conservatives don’t appear to be making further inroads into the Red Wall of northern England,” said Mr Baxter. “Labour seem secure in their councils there, while the Conservative gains may not go further north than the Midlands.”

The Conservatives are predicted to lose one council – Cherwell – to no overall control, while Labour are forecast to lose two – Ipswich and Plymouth.