Crystal balls

Modelling does not predict the future

Models tell you what might happen, but they don’t tell you what will happen, says the UAE’s Prof Paul Hunter.

In February, Imperial College London forecast the reopening of schools would push the R from 0.8 to 1.1.

But Office for National Statistics data found secondary school pupils going back to the classroom have not pushed up infections.

In April, Sage modelling found less than 45 per cent of adults would have antibodies by June 21.

But ONS data found 68 per cent already have antibodies, either from vaccination or a prior infection.