Tories would win landslide in snap election

Survey of 14,000 voters after local polls gives Conservatives 13pc lead over ‘destructive’ Labour

BORIS JOHNSON would secure a 122seat landslide majority and win 23 more “red wall” seats in the Midlands and North if he held a snap general election, according to a new mass poll.

The survey of 14,000 people carried out after the local and regional elections put the Tories on 43 per cent, a 13 per cent lead over Labour (30 per cent).

The party would gain in Teesside, Sunderland, West Yorkshire and South Yorkshire, while Labour politicians including Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband and Jon Cruddas would lose their seats.

The poll for The Sunday Telegraph, carried out from May 13 to May 15, found the Tory lead over Labour more than doubled from 5 per cent before the elections to 13 per cent.

The figures are a blow to Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, whose authority has been tested after a disastrous showing last week. The figures suggest that the Conservatives would gain a landslide majority of 122 seats – up from 81 today – if the Prime Minister ordered a general election.

Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus ran the sampling in the wake of the May 6 elections.

A forecast based on those results left the Conservatives with a reduced 36 seat majority. However since the elections the Tory position strengthened significantly. The experts found that – compared with the 2019 general election result – the Tories will increase their seats by 21 to 386, while Labour fell back 31 seats to 172.

The SNP is forecast to pick up another 10 seats, taking its number of MPs to 58, leaving just a single Scottish MP not in the SNP. The Liberal Democrats lose two seats, to be left with nine, and the Greens gain a seat to have two.

Chris Holbrook, of Find Out Now, said Labour, already squeezed by the Tories in some parts, was now losing support to the Greens. He said: “As the vaccine rollout continues to endear the Conservatives to a beleaguered nation, Labour’s rebuild seems to have not progressed past the destructive phase.

“The Greens are benefiting particularly at the moment from Labour’s weakness.” Martin Baxter, of Electoral Calculus, said an “existential question is looming large for Labour as its traditional supporters abandon it”.

He said: “The aftermath of the local elections has seen a slide in support away from Labour. The Conservatives now have a double digit-lead over Labour, and could be on course for a landslide majority. A divided opposition with votes split between Labour, Lib Dems and Greens pretty much makes it easy for the Conservatives to win.

“Only in Scotland and Wales, where the Conservatives are not the largest party, does their winning formula break down.” The analysis shows that the Tories would pick up 23 new “red wall” seats in the Midlands and the North but just six more in London and the South.

One of the few Conservative casualties would be Scottish Secretary Alister Jack, who would lose his Dumfries and Galloway seat to the rampant SNP in Scotland.