France is flashing amber, but UK is flashing red
The decision to cancel “freedom day” for fully vaccinated Britons returning from France is not a good omen – no matter how you interpret it.
You could take the Government at its word. It’s worried about the beta variant, and its reported ability to evade the AstraZeneca vaccine; France has a bit of beta and so it makes sense to discourage travel there by continuing the requirement for quarantine.
This “amber-plus” approach was backed by Prof John Edmunds, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage).
“The beta variant has remained a threat throughout,” he told the BBC yesterday.
“As the population here becomes more and more immune [to delta], the conditions are right then for the beta variant to get an advantage, so I can understand the concern. Of the variants that are out there and are known about, that one has always been a threat to us. There is some good evidence from South Africa that it can evade the immune response generated by the AstraZeneca vaccine more efficiently.”
If you accept this logic, it’s a good bet the UK will be shutting its borders to Spain and Greece, together with much of the rest of Europe in the near future – and keeping them shut for a long time.
Some 70 per cent of all those who have been vaccinated in the UK have received the beta-vulnerable AstraZeneca vaccine and this is not going to change anytime soon. At the same time, the beta variant is common across much of the world, with cases detected in 97 countries, including the UK at the last count.
“We have always been clear that we will not hesitate to take rapid action at our borders to stop the spread of Covid-19 and protect the gains made by our successful vaccination programme,” said Sajid Javid, the Health Secretary, on Friday, perhaps anticipating further restrictions to come. “We will do everything we can to ensure international travel is conducted as safely as possible, and protect our borders from the threat of variants.”
But there is another way to interpret the Government’s action. The polite version was expressed by the MEP and public health specialist Véronique Trillet-Lenoir yesterday, when describing the amber-plus decision as “very difficult to understand”.
Yes, there is a bit in France but the dashboard of the European Centres for Disease Control (ECDC) shows it is actually more common in Spain and Greece – both major tourist destinations for Britons.
The usual critics online were questioning the political motives behind the crackdown, but it’s true – there is much about it that does not make sense.
First there is the issue of prevalence. On mainland France, the incidence of the beta variant is estimated to be at just 3.5 per cent and falling.
The only area of France where it is dominant is on Réunion island, which is more than 5,000 miles away in the Indian Ocean
In London, by contrast, the beta variant represented 45 per cent of all cases on July 5, according to the latest variant report published by Public Health England.
Then there are the twin issues of tit-for-tat sanctions and vaccine nationalism to consider.
France has been tightening the screw on incoming Britons for some time now to protect itself from the delta variant. You can only enter France for “essential” reasons unless you are fully vaccinated. And from midnight tonight, everyone must show a negative Covid test completed within 24 hours of arriving.
The only people allowed to flow unhindered each way between the two countries are hauliers – a vector the Health Secretary would want to be very careful about if the import of rare variants was really at the top of his mind. The UK approach to vaccines provides another pointer. It’s odd, but the rule that allows vaccinated people returning to Britain from most amber-list countries without quarantine from tomorrow only applies to those who have received their jabs “under the UK vaccination programme”. In short, the UK does not recognise identical jabs administered by other countries.
One explanation may be that Whitehall has been holding out recognition of overseas jabs as leverage for acceptance of its own. As we reported yesterday, there has been a secret diplomatic push to persuade foreign countries to drop all additional requirements for double-vaccinated Britons in time for August. Unfortunately, this has proved largely fruitless, with EU countries telling the UK it would be better off joining the more widely adopted EU vaccine passport scheme. But there is one final reason to be sceptical about the new amber-plus plan for those returning from France – and it is the most obvious of all. As of midnight tonight, all domestic legal restrictions on mixing will be lifted and “freedom day” will begin just as domestic cases reach all time record levels.
Official figures from PHE released on Friday saw cases top 50,000 for the first time since January. The daily death total was 49, with 717 people admitted to hospital. The former health secretary Jeremy Hunt, now chairman of the Commons health and social care committee, described the situation as “very serious”.
“The warning light on the NHS dashboard is not flashing amber, it is flashing red,” he told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme.
“Covid hospital patients are doubling every two weeks. That means we are heading for 10,000 Covid hospital patients by the end of August, which is about 20 times higher than this time last year.”
Given the Government’s problems at home, what better time to pick a fight with the French.