Politicians’ foibles are a given. What the public really wants to see is competent governance

Organisations often find the crisis they thought they were fighting is not the real crisis at all. They focus on one thing, while the public is focused on another. This is true with the row over the Government’s Christmas parties and the leaked video of staffers awkwardly laughing about it all. Encouraged by commentators and opposition politicians, the Government thinks it faces a crisis of perceived arrogance and hypocrisy.

Politically, however, this is a sideshow; the real crisis is about competence. Unfair maybe, but here is the truth: it is practically impossible for politicians to disappoint voters with their personal conduct. Why? Because most people think most politicians are arrogant, hypocritical, out-of-touch and in it for themselves. This is why the great expenses scandal a decade ago produced no meaningful political change and it is why Labour’s focus on “Tory sleaze” has fallen flat. This row over Christmas parties will ultimately come and go. Almost nobody voted for Boris Johnson – or indeed this government – because of high expectations of their personal moral code. A minority thought Johnson was a bad person; most thought he was just another posh politician that does as he pleases. Comparatively few will therefore feel shocked or personally let down that social distancing rules were breached or that a few advisers they had never heard of enjoyed some dark humour.

The crisis the Government faces is about competence; the Christmas parties merely apply festive cherries to a cake that was already baked and ready to slice. Revelations around the parties have certainly angered some, but a much bigger deal than the video of laughing aides is the mix of denials, confusion and physical hiding that has defined the Government’s response. This is because all this provides context – and a plausible explanation – for the perceived failures of government we have seen in the last six months.

Regardless of whether it is fair to lay everything at the door of this government, there are many examples where allegations of incompetence are at least plausible. Just this week, we have heard apparent mixed messages and contradictions on Covid policy. Also this week, a whistleblower has made extraordinary allegations about failures at the Foreign Office in helping Afghan civilians evacuate Kabul. Over the last month, we have seen the arrival of many dozens of small boats carrying refugees from France amid government frustration. A few months back, the country suffered a major petrol shortage and now we all face the prospect of higher inflation and rising bills. The list goes on.

The row over parties therefore matters because it seems to confirm this government is all over the place and cannot handle the big challenges facing the country. In dark times, people will tolerate a great deal if they think the Government has got its act together. All the sleaze allegations levelled at the Conservatives in the late 1990s would have come to nothing but for the perceived Conservative incompetence on the economy after Britain crashed out of the exchange rate mechanism. It was incompetence that killed the Major government, not sleaze. What can the Conservatives do to get out of this predicament? Of course, they need to provide chapter and verse on these parties and to apologise for them where appropriate (the details are still completely confused). But this will make zero impact on the polls. Much, much more importantly, they need to demonstrate progress on four big areas. Firstly, the rollout of booster jabs needs to be completely impeccable and they need to provide a clear pathway back to normality.

Secondly, they need to demonstrate some progress somewhere on asylum and immigration policy. Thirdly, they need a set of retail policies to follow the publication of their Levelling-Up White Paper, now due in January. Fourthly, they need to be seen to tackle the coming cost of living crisis. It is all about substance now.

That said, clearly a change in their governing style is needed. Johnson remains a huge electoral asset; he is the best campaigning politician of his generation. Given this reality, the answer is not to try to turn him into something he is not, but instead to ensure the most competent politicians are anointed with roles to meet the most difficult challenges. In other words, we need to see a bit less Boris Johnson and a bit more Michael Gove, Rishi Sunak and Oliver Dowden.