Tighten rules ‘or face wave of deaths’
Modelling shows omicron risks causing more hospital admissions and loss of life than last winter
‘Our projections are worrying. It doesn’t paint a very optimistic picture. I’m worried, as I was last year’
THE omicron variant could cause more hospitalisations and deaths than were recorded at the peak of last winter’s Covid second wave unless restrictions are tightened further, new modelling suggests.
A projection by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine predicts that in the most optimistic scenario – taking into account the Government’s Plan B measures – there could be about 2,400 daily hospital admissions in England in January alone.
However, the most pessimistic scenario projects peak admissions of twice as high as last January, when hospitalisations were just over 3,000.
The scientists also predicted there could be anywhere between 25,000 and 75,000 deaths over the next five months.
Only by reintroducing tougher lockdown-style measures of the sort in place last Christmas do the modellers feel confident that hospitalisations and deaths will be below the peak of the last wave. The authors acknowledge such restrictions would bring an indirect set of harms of their own.
“Our projections are worrying. It doesn’t paint a very optimistic picture,” said Dr Nicholas Davies, one of the paper’s authors. “We’re worried on the one hand about the potential epidemiological impact of the variant and we’re worried, on the other hand, about the potential consequences of control measures that the Government may decide to introduce in order to avert these outcomes.
“So I’m worried … as I was at the time of the alpha variant last year.”
At a press briefing, the researchers, who also sit on the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling subgroup of Sage, stressed there remains much uncertainty about how things will unfold because not enough is yet known about omicron.
Nevertheless, there was little time to act as the virus was moving so fast, they said. The team used experimental data to predict how omicron may spread this winter under the new mask-wearing and home working restrictions, as well as the increased booster jab rollout.
In the most optimistic scenario – based on the virus proving less able to evade antibodies and booster jabs giving more protection – the modellers projected a possible peak of more than 2,000 daily hospital admissions, resulting in a total of 175,000 hospital admissions and 24,700 deaths between Dec 1 and April 30.
At present, there are 680 hospital admissions a day, with around 730 deaths each week.
In the most pessimistic scenario – where the virus was more able to evade antibodies and booster jabs were less effective – a wave of infection was predicted leading to a peak in hospital admissions twice as high as the peak seen last January. This could cause 492,000 hospital admissions and 74,800 deaths, according to the study.
The paper concludes: “These results suggest that omicron has the potential to cause substantial surges in cases, hospital admissions and deaths in populations with high levels of immunity, including England. The reintroduction of additional non-pharmaceutical interventions may be required to prevent hospital admissions exceeding the levels seen in England during the previous peak in winter 2020-2021.”
Dr Rosanna Barnard, who co-led the research, said “Nobody wants to endure another lockdown but lastresort measures may be required to protect health services if omicron has a significant level of immune escape or otherwise increased transmissibility compared to delta. It is crucial for decision-makers to consider the wider societal impact of measures, not just the epidemiology.”