Russia plots ‘false flag’ attack to provoke war
Putin expected to claim he did not strike first as Wallace fears ‘straw man’ diplomacy
VLADIMIR PUTIN is planning a “false flag” event as a pretext for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine as soon as Wednesday, Britain believes, as the Defence Secretary indicated that diplomatic efforts could be no more than a “straw man”.
A Whitehall source said the Kremlin was believed to be preparing to “create the circumstances” in which it could justify an invasion on the grounds that Russian troops were “responding to Ukrainian or Western aggression”.
The warning came after Mr Putin blamed the United States for arming its enemies in Ukraine as he took part in a series of calls with Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron. Last night, Ben Wallace drew parallels with the 1930s policy of appeasement by saying there was “a whiff of Munich in the air from some in the West”. A source said the Defence Secretary was concerned that if Mr Putin launches an invasion “come what may” then “all the diplomacy would have been a straw man”.
A defence source added: “It is encouragement to maintain our resolve, remember the historical parallels and not repeat the error.”
The CIA has warned Nato allies that an invasion could take place on Wednesday, following intelligence reportedly intercepted from Russian central command to troops on the ground.
The Whitehall source said it was reasonable to “take it in good faith when Russia says it has not got any plans to invade”, but added: “You have also got to understand that they are hoping to create the circumstances where they say they are responding to Ukrainian or Western aggression.”
Intelligence about a Russian “false flag” operation to fake an attack on its forces was also discussed in the White House Situation Room on Thursday evening.
Mr Biden warned Mr Putin yesterday that an attack “would produce widespread human suffering and diminish Russia’s standing”.
In an hour-long phone call, Mr Biden said Russia would face “swift and severe” punishment from the US and its allies if the attack went ahead.
A senior administration official described the exchange as “very direct” and said Mr Biden had also raised concerns about the safety of American citizens in Ukraine, but said it was not clear if the warning had been taken on board.
“Russia may decide to proceed with military action anyway. Indeed that is a distinct possibility. If it does, the damage in Ukraine, European security and yes to Russia will be profound,” the official said. Mr Putin, who earlier held talks with Mr Macron, the French president, said that the allegations were a “provocation”, and instead suggested that Ukraine was planning its own attack on pro-Russian separatists.
“Provocative speculations about an alleged imminent Russian ‘invasion’ of Ukraine … come hand in hand with large-scale supplies of hi-tech weaponry” to Ukraine, creating “conditions for the Ukrainian army’s aggression in the Donbas,” the Kremlin said after Mr Putin’s call with Mr Macron.
The Kremlin also denounced American “hysteria” but said Mr Putin and Mr Biden had agreed to continue dialogue.
Yury Ushakov, the Kremlin’s top foreign policy adviser, said “hysteria has reached its peak”, but added that “the presidents have agreed to continue contacts at all levels”.
An Elysée palace official told French media that Mr Putin made “no indication … that he is going to go on the offensive”, but that France would now be recommending that French nationals avoid trips to Ukraine.
“We are nevertheless extremely vigilant and alert to the Russian [military] posture in order to avoid the worst,” they said.
Liz Truss, the Foreign Secretary, warned last week in a meeting with Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, that if Russia invaded Ukraine, “severe sanctions” would be imposed
on Moscow, including on numerous allies of Mr Putin.
But some government insiders fear that Mr Putin had already “priced in” the prospect of such sanctions and is prepared to invade Ukraine regardless.
Yesterday, James Heappey, the Armed Forces minister, said that British troops training Ukrainian forces would leave the country over the weekend.
“We are now confident that the artillery systems, the missile systems and the combat air are all in place that would allow Russia to launch – at no notice – an attack on Ukraine,” Mr Heappey said.
A Ministry of Defence spokesman said: “British personnel have been providing training to the Ukrainian Armed Forces through Operation Orbital since 2015, but for the moment the deployment has fulfilled its current training obligations.
“The UK Government remains steadfast in our support to Ukraine and continues to urge Russia to pursue de-escalation and continued diplomacy.”
The Pentagon said it was also temporarily pulling 160 American military trainers out of the country.
Russia has massed upwards of 130,000 troops near its border with Ukraine and in western Belarus.
The New York Times cited American sources saying US intelligence officials believed Mr Putin would wait until the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics next Sunday before invading, but think the timeline was accelerated in recent days.
The Foreign Office issued travel advice urging all British nationals to leave Ukraine by tomorrow evening.
Several other countries including Israel, Japan, Bulgaria and Germany issued similar warnings to their citizens yesterday.
The US state department ordered all but a “core team” of its diplomats and employees to leave the American embassy in Kyiv.
The British embassy is pulling out non-essential staff, but local staff and a core team including Melinda Simmons, the ambassador, will stay in Kyiv.
Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, played down the invasion warnings and claimed he had not seen any evidence suggesting an attack was imminent. The Ukrainian foreign ministry issued a statement calling for calm.
Meanwhile, Tobias Ellwood, the chairman of the Commons defence select committee, warns today that the crisis could cement a new Moscow-Beijing axis and calls for Nato to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine to deter a Russian attack.
Writing for telegraph.co.uk, he says: “This is much more than about Ukraine. It’s a totemic moment as we enter an era of increasing instability.
“If Ukraine falls it will see the beginning of our modern world sliding into two spheres of competing geo-political influence.”
Russia’s ministry of defence said its navy had chased a US submarine out of Russian territorial waters in the Pacific.
The Marshal Shaposhnikov, a Russian destroyer, detected a US Navy Virginia-class submarine near the Kuril Islands early on Friday.
A Pentagon spokesman said: “We are aware of press reporting about an alleged naval incident in the Pacific. We cannot confirm the details of these reports at this time.”
‘The artillery, missiles and combat air are all in place that would allow Russia to launch an attack’