Macron in command by being least worst choice
French president on course for lead in first round of election as his opponents disintegrate
Emmanuel Macron is coasting ahead in the polls going into the first round of the French presidential election, boosted by shuttle diplomacy on the world stage and bitter infighting among his rivals at home.
Hated by many French with a vengeance but credited with “getting the job done”, Mr Macron is cementing his place as France’s least unpopular president as the April elections near.
While Mr Macron played the European statesman this week in high-stakes talks to avoid war with Russia’s Vladimir Putin – at the risk of irking Nato allies Britain and America – members of his camp are oozing quiet confidence over his re-election chances back home.
Yet Gallic aversion to the foregone conclusion could mean the die is not yet cast for April’s two-round ballot, warn analysts.
It is little wonder team Macron are in the pink given the battery of polls that see him coming first in round one on April 10 and then romping home in the run-off.
At 40 per cent, his popularity is hardly stratospheric but remains double his immediate predecessor François Hollande and significantly higher than Right-winger Nicolas Sarkozy at this stage in his presidency.
And while Mr Macron, 44, continued to keep his rivals guessing over the launch of his re-election campaign – the deadline is March 4 – his most dangerous potential opponent appeared this week to be on the ropes before he had even deigned to enter the ring.
Valérie Pécresse, 54, the Right-wing Republicans party candidate, is locked in a close three-way fight with far-Right contenders Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour to claim second place. Stagnating in the polls after a strong start, her side have talked up her first mass rally in Paris today as a potential game-changer.
However, the build-up to the event has not gone to plan, rocked by what appears to be a series of carefully coordinated pre-emptive strikes from the Macron camp this week.
The first grenade came from Mr Sarkozy, under whom Ms Pécresse was a government minister and who still commands considerable clout on the Right. “Valérie is all over the place in this campaign. She is non-existent. She has no dynamic,” Le Figaro quoted “Sarko” as privately exclaiming on
‘The other candidates are pretty weak, not just personally but ideologically’
‘You might dislike him or his policies but it’s very hard to argue he hasn’t delivered’
Thursday. While she went to pay her respects to her former boss in his Parisian office on Friday, Mr Sarkozy reportedly declined to offer public support for his party’s candidate by showing up to today’s rally.
While the pair are from the same party, he is said to be dismissive of her chances and is known to be on good terms with Mr Macron, whom the Pécresse camp suspect he may end up supporting. Compounding her woes, Ms Pécresse this week suffered three defections.
Natacha Bouchart, the mayor of Calais, jumped ship to the Macron camp, saying the President had been “attentive” to her fight to cope with waves of migrants seeking to reach Britain by sea. With the far-Right candidates locked in mortal combat and the Left hopelessly divided, Mr Macron has a clear path to mop up the centre-ground, say his supporters.
“The other candidates are pretty weak, not just personally but ideologically,” said Roland Lescure, MP and spokesman for Mr Macron’s LREM party. Beyond his rivals’ woes, the Macron side points to his record.
“You might dislike him or his policies but it’s very hard to argue he hasn’t delivered,” said Alexandre Holroyd, MP for Mr Macron’s LREM party who represents French expats in the UK and northern Europe, pointing to his pro-business reforms.
“Objectively, if I look back at any outgoing president, France is arguably in the best economic shape that I can remember,” he told The Sunday Telegraph. France is now Europe’s top country for foreign investment, above the UK and Germany.
And while foreign policy has never won a presidential election, Mr Macron’s international grandstanding – France currently holds the EU presidency – means “he looks the part and the others don’t,” said Mr Lescure.
Countering that rosy picture, analysts warn he has weak points and if there’s one thing the French hate it is a foregone electoral conclusion.
“It has helped that Macron hasn’t done any reforms since the start of the Covid crisis and as result is seen as far less divisive. And on a personal level, even if he recently said he wanted to “p--- off ” the unvaccinated, he is much more careful with his language and thus less hated,” said Matthieu Gallet of Ipsos. “But he is not seen as close to the French people’s concerns and that poses a problem given that top priority for the French by far are rising living costs,” he said.
An ominous warning signal has been recent purchasing power protests and a motley “freedom convoy” of vehicles heading for Paris this weekend, and whose grievances go beyond coronavirus health restrictions. “Meanwhile, the French are genuinely disappointed by the campaign to date because candidates are focusing mainly on Covid and immigration and not addressing their main concerns,” he added.