Tories must not return to the Cameron era
The party’s pivot to targeting workingclass voters can – and should – outlast Boris Johnson’s premiership
With Boris Johnson tanking in the polls and many MPs seemingly preparing to withdraw their support, attention is turning to who and what next. For those of us who backed Johnson’s successful pivot to working-class voters, it is a worrying time. The prospect of a shift back to the Cameron-era comfort zone of the young, urban posh is growing.
There are two reasons to worry: firstly, a developing narrative that Johnson’s appeal to working-class voters was unique to him and therefore temporary; secondly, leading candidates to replace him show little real interest in working-class voters.
Before the 2019 landslide, it was regularly asserted the party’s future was decided: the growth of young, urban and suburban professionals was so decisive the Conservatives had no choice but to secure their long-term support. This outlook emphasises public discussion of social issues; fewer immigration controls; tax cuts for businesses, not families; and so on. After the 2019 landslide – and particularly after the surge of workingclass support at the 2021 local elections – this argument lost relevance. With Johnson weakened politically it is slowly coming to the fore again.
No doubt, we will soon hear that Johnson was a passing, embarrassing phenomenon: that he alone could appeal to the working class because he was prepared to use his talents to exploit their fears through populist campaigns. This critique is wrong. It wildly mischaracterises working-class values and their political priorities. While unashamedly patriotic, they are quietly so; while they do not consider social liberalism a governing agenda, they are personally liberal; while they want border control, they welcome migrants who work hard. They are emphatically not populist voters.
It also understates their size. While the group of voters I write about self-define as working class, they are in effect mostly middle class (and would be called so in America) and amount to something like half the population; furthermore, they amount to more than half the electorate in marginal seats. That these voters are in play for the Conservatives massively reduces Labour’s route to power.
Crucially, it underplays the importance of policy. Johnson is the best campaigner of his generation, but it was his policy agenda that culminated in last year’s local election triumph. Just as he surged when the Government got Brexit done, introduced immigration reform and put more money into public services, so he started falling in the polls in the autumn when policy failures on key issues became visible.
Now for my other big concern: a lack of interest in working-class voters. I am, of course, primarily talking about Rishi Sunak (but the same is true of almost all the others). I called for his rapid promotion when he was a backbencher and he is intelligent, thoughtful and decent. But I do worry that he is much less interested in the working-class pivot.
While Sunak will unquestionably be more attractive to urban, young professionals, they are not big enough in number to secure the party’s future; furthermore, many now have values which are simply more closely aligned with Labour.
It has taken a huge effort to make the Conservatives a working-class party and it has paid massive electoral dividends. This is where the party’s future lies. If a new leader takes his or her eye off these voters, we can be sure Keir Starmer will be ready to bring many of them back to Labour. Equally, those who cannot face a Labour vote will have two other choices: a Farage equivalent, or staying at home.
It has taken a huge effort to make the Tories a workingclass party … This is where the party’s future lies