Kremlin jackboots show why we must focus on tanks and personnel
With a violent, bloody and destructive return to state-onstate warfare in Europe, this must be the moment for defence planners to look again at the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy published in March last year.
Entitled Global Britain in a Competitive Age, it set out to be the “biggest review of... policy since the end of the Cold War” and inter alia posited a pivot towards the Indo-China and East Asia region.
To locked-down officials in Whitehall in 2020, this might have seemed a reasonable policy proposal, but Vladimir Putin has spun that pivot on its head. The Kremlin’s war against Ukraine has dragged the United Kingdom back to focus on what matters – security in Europe and the primacy of our membership of Nato.
Talk of the dangers of a resurgent Russia has echoed around Whitehall for more than a decade as Putin tightened his grip on power.
However, it remained just talk while the ambitions of a maritime-led defence policy diverted our eyes towards East Asia and became the dictator of a shift in our defence spending. But Russian armoured columns are concentrating minds now. Whether there should be a rebalancing of our defence spending priorities is a question that cannot be dodged but for today the priority must be our unqualified support to Ukraine.
The people there deserve our huge admiration and encouragement as they face an attack on their chosen way of life. This fledgling democracy must eventually triumph over Putin’s deranged autocracy.
Our admiration should extend to the brave Russian citizens who demonstrate against a war that they disown. If Putin’s objective is to effect
regime change in Kyiv to bring Ukraine into the wider family of Russian influence, then we should support those seeking regime change in the Kremlin to bring Russia back into the family of civilised nations.
Although we have supplied aid, Ukraine is not a Nato member and British troops will not be joining their fight for freedom. For the same reason, policing a no-fly zone over Ukrainian airspace would inevitably bring Nato into contact with Russian aircraft, transforming a limited conflict into a major war.
Our response instead must be unified, intense and sustained. Our weapons must be the continued unity of the West, the imposition of deep economic sanctions and the isolation of Russia from all dimensions of the international community, including diplomatic, sporting and cultural. The West will have to show a strategic patience to which it is unaccustomed.
While the tragedy of Ukraine reaches its denouement, UK defence
planners should re-consider their priorities and accept that we have run down our land warfare capability to the point that our deterrent deployments on the borders of our Nato friends lack the depth and sustainability required.
The aspiration to field an armoured division in any future conflict is not achievable within existing defence spending plans. We would struggle today to field even a brigade of 5,000 troops at high readiness to fight.
Moreover, a major uplift in our gun and rocket artillery is required – and in our air defence capability. This is unwelcome news in the Treasury, but the reality of what is happening in Europe today cannot be ignored.
Theodore Roosevelt talked about carrying a big stick and speaking softly. Currently the West is talking loudly to Putin, but where is the big stick?