Taiwan fears in fresh focus amid life in the shadow of China threat
Among the young couples taking selfies and parents playing with toddlers on the quayside of Taiwan’s northern Keelung port, two elderly women are talking about the last time they handled guns.
“We received training in high school. The instructor stood behind us and did all the work. We barely hit the targets,” said Chiu Chun Feng, 63. But if China invaded, she said, she would consider picking up arms again.
Her friend Xu Yu-ying, 66, motioned in the air with her right hand to show how she would fire a gun at an invading Chinese army.
“I would be willing to fight for my country, because we need to be able to hold on ourselves to buy time so that we can wait for more help,” she said.
“We’re so used to our freedom that we cannot stand Communism.
“I saw on TV an old man who was around 80 years old in Ukraine who was standing up and fighting, so I think we should fight too.”
Taiwan, a democratic island of 23.5 million, has for years faced aggressive overtures from the Chinese Communist Party, which has threatened to absorb it by force, despite never having ruled there.
As the world’s 21st largest economy, a dominant manufacturer of semiconductor chips, and a strategic player in Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy, the country is a key regional player and could not be invaded without serious repercussions.
So, the Taiwanese have learnt to live with China’s threats, perhaps even ignore them.
But the full-blown invasion of Ukraine – something most thought was impossible right up until the moment it happened – has forced the citizens of Taiwan to confront the unthinkable: could the worst-case scenario suddenly erupt on their shores, too?
The Maritime Plaza promenade where Ms Chiu and Ms Xu were chatting is on the rim of Keelung’s harbour, which faces out towards the Taiwan Strait.
In the distance, tucked behind a docked cruise ship, grey warships from a nearby naval base are a jarring reminder of the parallels being drawn between the situations in eastern Europe and eastern Asia.
“The Ukraine crisis has raised our awareness about whether China might invade us. For a lot of Taiwanese, the war was an idea that was very far from us, but ever since the start of war between Ukraine and
Russia, we feel it’s closer,” said Ms Chen, 33, a young aunt babysitting her niece Lulu.
Keelung’s Weihai naval base, as the launchpad for mine-laying ships and “aircraft killer” corvettes into the roughly 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait that separates the island from China, would be a prime target in a conflict.
As Lulu, 14 months, shot off gleefully in a fast crawl across the dark wooden slats of the Keelung boardwalk, Ms Chen, who declined to give her full name, admitted she had no idea what to do if conflict broke out.
“We have never received this kind of training. People would be willing to train. What happened in Ukraine inspired us to learn what to do during wartime,” she said.
Taiwan already has an annual air raid drill, but in recent days, local news coverage has highlighted the presence of over 100,000 designated bomb shelters – available on Google maps and including garages and metro stations – where citizens could take cover from incoming missiles.
Tsai Ing-wen, the Taiwanese president, has instructed a Ukraine crisis group at her National Security Council to raise military surveillance, while the government has shown support for Kyiv by lighting up major buildings in the blue and yellow colours of its flag, and donating
27 tons of medical supplies. The Ukrainian people’s “heroic determination” was strengthening its own “security preparedness”, said Kolas Yotaka, Taiwan’s presidential office spokesman.
“The clear message sent by the Ukrainian people to Taiwan is that only we can defend our country. All we can do is to stand up for our self-determination.”
But Taipei has also sought to reassure the public here that the two countries’ situations are far from identical.
China has also bristled at the comparisons. “Taiwan, of course, is not Ukraine,” Hua Chunying, a foreign ministry spokesman, said last week following Russia’s invasion.
Her follow-up statement was less comforting, however: “Taiwan has always been an inalienable part of China’s territory. This is an irrefutable historical and legal fact.”
Yet fears that China might seize the crisis as an opportune moment to launch its own land grab have so far not transpired.
Neither has the full-throated support for
Moscow’s actions that most expected.
Instead, Beijing has hedged its bets, abstaining
from UN votes condemning the invasion, but also saying it was “concerned” about Ukrainian civilian casualties and offering to play a mediating role.
In a telephone call with his Ukrainian counterpart, Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, stressed “respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries”, said the foreign ministry.
But that has not stopped the online trolls.
The state-run Global Times mocked Taiwan’s ruling party as “pathetic and desperate” for believing the US would stand with them as well if war breaks out.
On social media, aggressive nationalists cultivated by the Chinese government and known as “little pinks” pinks have called for Xi to follow in Vladimir Putin’s footsteps. “China should take this chance to solve the Taiwan problem as soon as possible,” wrote a user on Weibo, China’s version of Twitter. “It’s the best chance to take Taiwan back now!” wrote another. The events in Ukraine have also prompted shifts in Taiwan’s regional allies. Last week, Shinzo Abe, Japan’s former prime minister, urged the US to drop its policy of “strategic ambiguity”, where it stops short of confirming whether it would intervene if China
invaded. “By showing it may intervene, it keeps China in check,” he said.
Washington has not signalled a change in policy, but this week dispatched a high-profile delegation of former defence officials, including Admiral Mike Mullen, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to Taipei as an explicit show of support.
“Maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is not just a US interest, but also a global one,” he told president Tsai on Wednesday.
“Russia’s invasion reminds us that Taiwan must work with the US and other partners to defend our shared values and uphold peace.”
Most analysts do not truly believe an invasion is imminent.
“I think they understand that would
horrible idea because if anything increases US resolve to do something,” said Oriana Skylar Mastro,
the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. “When they move on Taiwan is shaped by domestic political factors and whether it is good timing Xi Jinping and his career.”
But when exactly that might be remains an open question. Taiwanese
US defence chiefs have openly warned that China will be capable of
so in just three years’ time. Back on the Maritime Plaza promenade, Wo Shan-gen, 96, has
through many wars and believes Taiwan is safe, but not very safe.”
still feels a strong connection to China, where he was born and left for Taiwan at 16, and he hopes for peace. “I
like Xi Jinping won’t invade, because he has said that Chinese people don’t attack Chinese people.” Addi