The world order is already beginning to fall apart

There can be little question that Vladimir Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has turned the world order on its head. In the 10 days since hostilities commenced, Russian forces have bombed and shelled civilians, sent assassination squads to murder president Volodymyr Zelensky, and risked causing a nuclear explosion by attacking Europe’s largest nuclear power plant. By any standard, these and the many other crimes against humanity that have been committed by Russian forces are deserving of international condemnation.

So it was heartening to see last week’s emergency special session of the UN General Assembly vote overwhelmingly in favour of a motion denouncing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A total of 141 countries from the 193-member body supported the resolution, which demanded the immediate, complete and unconditional withdrawal of all Russian forces from Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders.

Even if general assembly motions are non-binding, it is still rare for the body to produce such a damning indictment of a member state. Normally its resolutions pass unnoticed, reflecting the assembly’s obsession with the Israel-Palestine conflict, while the last time it convened an emergency special session was back in 1997 to discuss climate change.

This meeting, though, was different because after Russia vetoed a previous Security Council resolution condemning the invasion, the general assembly vote reflected Putin’s isolation. Only four other countries – North Korea, Syria, Belarus and Eritrea – voted against the motion. Russia can now be officially designated as a rogue state, joining the ranks of other pariahs such as Iran, while Putin becomes the Kremlin’s equivalent of North Korea’s unhinged dictator, Kim Jong-un.

Gratifying as the vote will be for those who seek to condemn Moscow’s abhorrent conduct in Ukraine, however, the fact that a significant number of countries – 35 in all – abstained is still a cause for concern.

China, which also abstained on the Security Council vote, was never likely to back the motion, as Beijing appears intent on making a Faustian pact with Moscow in its quest to overturn the established world order.

More worrying was the abstention by countries such as India and Pakistan, which, until recently, were assumed to have pro-Western sympathies, but are now seeking to distance themselves from the deepening breach between Russia and the West.

Pakistan, whose increasing economic dependence on China has hastened its shift towards Beijing’s sphere of influence, no longer enjoys the political independence to decide its own destiny.

India’s decision to abstain, on the other hand, is troubling, particularly as in recent years Indian prime minister Narendra Modi has sought closer ties with the West, which was reflected in Boris Johnson’s decision to invite him to participate in last June’s G7 summit in Cornwall.

When it comes to Russia, though, New Delhi finds itself in a difficult position because, due to its longstanding rivalry with China, it is seeking to maintain a pragmatic relationship with Moscow on the basis that, in the event of a Sino-Indian conflict, it could count on Russian support. This sounds like wishful thinking on Modi’s part, however, as Putin, given his attempts to forge a strategic partnership with Beijing, might prove unwilling to jeopardise relations with China.

India, the world’s largest democracy, could therefore find its position untenable if the Ukraine crisis descends into an existential struggle between the values of Western-style democracy and authoritarianism, as embodied by Russia and China. In such circumstances, democratic states will have no choice but to decide whose side they are really on. But whose side will it be?

The West may be united, but the decision by India and Pakistan to abstain on a UN motion criticising Russia is troubling