Korean tensions build as North ‘prepares to test monster missile’
NORTH KOREA will likely test fire a new “monster missile” in the next few weeks, Washington has warned, in what would be a major escalation of its nuclear weapons programme.
The massive Hwasong-17 was unveiled at a military parade in 2020 but has not been test-fired since. It is potentially capable of carrying multiple warheads to anywhere in the US.
The Pentagon said it was likely to be tested imminently after revealing that two recent missile launches on Feb 27 and March 5 involved trialling parts of its weapons system.
“The purpose of these tests, which did not demonstrate [intercontinental ballistic missile] range, was likely to evaluate this new system before conducting a test at full range, potentially disguised as a space launch,” said the Department of Defence in a statement.
Experts believe that Hwasong-17 will get its debut ahead of the April 15 “Day of the Sun” national holiday when North Korea marks the birthday of Kim Jong-un’s late grandfather, Kim Il-sung.
In response, South Korea and the US said they were considering resuming their “Blue Lightning” joint military drills involving American nuclear-capable bombers on the Korean Peninsula.
If the US warnings are true, it would be Pyongyang’s first intercontinental ballistic missile test since 2017 and is a sign of how much the situation on the peninsula has deteriorated.
On top of several high-profile tests involving hypersonic weapons and a long-range cruise missile, the North also appears to be restoring underground tunnels in Punggye-ri, a nuclear test site that was reportedly decommissioned in 2018. “A new crisis with North Korea is quickly brewing,” according to Ankit Panda, at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Kim is fixated on “bigger-ticket items that could significantly harm US, South Korean and Japanese interests by expanding the quality and quantity of the nuclear threat,” he said.
The Hwasong-17 has a diameter of almost 2.5 metres and total mass of up to 110,000kg. Its transporter vehicle requires 11 axles and, according to Mr Panda, it is “the largest liquid-propellant missile deployed in a road-mobile configuration in human history”.
Of particular concern if it becomes operational is its ability to launch multiple warheads, making it easier to evade missile defence systems. Nuclear disarmament talks with Seoul and Washington collapsed in February 2019, and since January 2021 Kim has been signalling his intention to return to full-scale intercontinental ballistic missile testing. Now, it seems, he is ready.
“The check is coming soon, I suspect. Given the US assessment of the two most recent tests, I’d expect the odds of a full-scale test involving the new Hwasong-17 booster to be quite likely,” said Mr Panda.
Unlike his father, who used missile testing sparingly and for political purposes, “Kim Jong-un is actually trying to get these missiles and technology to an operational level”, said Jenny Town, director of the Stimson Centre’s 38 North Programme.
“He is testing for performance. It’s not for political showmanship.”
The conflict in Europe is also diverting attention from Pyongyang. Kim is looking to use “the diversion of Moscow’s war in Ukraine to get away with a lot,” said Patrick Cronin, at the Hudson Institute. But it was a strategy that could rebound.
“There is a heavy appetite for strengthening defences, in Congress, in Seoul, in Tokyo, in Canberra, in Europe,” said Mr Cronin. “North Korea is playing with fire.”