Outcome of this election will determine whether the EU has a future

A Le Pen victory could lead to formation of hard-Right alliance or Frexit, either of which would damage bloc

The future of the European Union is hanging in the balance as French voters go to the polls to elect their president today. The vote is a “referendum on Europe”, according to Emmanuel Macron, the incumbent who accuses his rival Marine Le Pen of plotting a “hidden Frexit”.

A Macron victory would accelerate federalist ambitions of EU political integration but a triumph for Ms Le Pen would slam on the brakes.

Ms Le Pen says she wants to reform rather than leave the EU, after her failed 2017 presidential campaign when she called for a Frexit vote.

Frexit is a far greater threat to the EU than Brexit as France is a founder member of the bloc, uses the Euro and only Berlin rivals it for influence in Brussels.

Ms Le Pen plans a law to trigger a referendum after 500,000 signatures are collected. “Why not?” she said, when asked if it could lead to a vote on EU membership. Her confrontational policies on European law and prioritising French citizens would bring her into conflict with EU institutions.

If elected, she is expected to form an alliance with other hard-Right EU leaders, such as Viktor Orban in Hungary and Mateusz Morawiecki in Poland. Such a Eurosceptic faction could frustrate and veto key EU policies, such as tying the bloc’s funding to respect for the rule of law. A “dirty Remain” strategy is possible because the EU can’t eject members.

Confronted with such impotence, French voters who see no benefit in EU membership but don’t want to leave may harden their stance. In 2005, the last French referendum on Europe, voters rejected a proposed EU constitution.

The socialist leaders of Germany, Spain and Portugal are worried, even though Mr Macron is expected to win, and took the unusual step of intervening in the election and calling for a Macron victory.

“A few hours before Brexit, millions of people said, ‘What’s the point of going out to vote?’ Mr Macron said at his final campaign rally, as he urged voters to turn out. “The next day, they woke up with a hangover.”

Victory will cement Mr Macron’s status as the EU’s most influential leader since Angela Merkel stepped down last year.

His grand visions for Europe often stalled over the five years he spent dealing with the cautious Mrs Merkel; the other half of the Franco-German engine of EU policymaking, and he will look to make up for lost time. He wants the Eurozone to have its own budget and finance minister and member states to lose their veto on EU foreign policy decisions. His plans for a common European defence force, including a 5,000- strong brigade seen by many as a forerunner to an EU army, have a willing audience in many capitals since the invasion of Ukraine.

In Brussels, he has handpicked lieutenants in Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel, the presidents of the European Commission and Council.

For Mr Macron, the EU amplifies and preserves French influence around the world.

For Ms Le Pen, the EU diminishes France and is something to be dismantled from within or left in ruins.