The Sunday Telegraph

Boris Johnson must heed this lesson from Australia

- The similariti­es between Scott Morrison and the PM are uncanny Matthew Lesh is head of public policy at the Institute of Economic Affairs

Australia woke up today to a new Labor government led by Prime Minister-elect Anthony Albanese. A strong economy with low unemployme­nt, and some notable foreign policy successes, including leading the global response to China, signing a trade deal with the UK, and the Aukus nuclear submarine agreement, were not enough to save outgoing prime minister Scott Morrison. He was plagued by scandals, from heading off on holiday to Hawaii as Australia was ravaged by bushfires, to allegation­s about covering up sexual assault in parliament and complaints about the slow delivery of vaccines.

Boris Johnson should heed this warning from Australia. Unlike the Conservati­ve Party’s overwhelmi­ng Brexit mandate, Morrison’s majority ran to just two seats after the last election. Neverthele­ss, the similariti­es are uncanny: a scandal-ridden prime minister, a moderate opposition leader and a realignmen­t that has shattered the political dynamic.

At the last election Morrison was able to terrify the electorate with the prospect of a high tax, left-wing Labor government. That was enough to keep metropolit­an socially liberal seats; just as fears about Jeremy Corbyn saved many Tories in London and the south east. This time, however, a different leader, wielding a similar playbook to Keir Starmer, championed inoffensiv­e policies and waged a viciously negative campaign about Morrison’s leadership.

Now the Liberals are on track to lose prosperous inner-city heartlands including Kooyong, the seat held by party founder Robert Menzies. These are being won by so-called “teal” blue-green independen­ts, focussing on issues like climate change, integrity in politics and gender equality. This is not a million miles away from the threat Boris Johnson faces as socially liberal Tories switch to the Liberal Democrats in “Blue Wall” seats.

More broadly, Morrison’s Liberals failed to give people in outer suburban and regional areas a reason to vote for them after nine years of lacklustre government, shared between three prime ministers with little sign of a principled agenda.

The result is no great endorsemen­t for Albanese and Labor. They have the most seats and will form a government, helped by swings in Western Australia, yet failed to make substantia­l inroads in many “left behind” suburban and regional areas. Public opinion is realigning away from the major parties. Labor’s primary vote is down, while the left-wing Greens performed well, picking up unexpected places such as Griffith in Queensland, the former seat of Labor prime minister Kevin Rudd. Meanwhile, conservati­ve populist parties such as One Nation and the United Australia Party, received almost one in 10 votes. Their support increased after harsh lockdowns and vaccine mandates.

The overall signal from the Australian people is disillusio­nment and exhaustion. This was an overwhelmi­ngly dull campaign, with no great agenda from either major party or excitement for the future.

“Australia is a lucky country run mainly by second-rate people who share its luck,” social critic Donald Horne opined back in 1964. This has never quite been true; in the past, strong leadership has delivered a winning mixture of democratic institutio­ns, a largely free economy and a prosperous society. Neverthele­ss, this election would suggest that Australian politician­s remain more than happy to coast on their good fortune.

The challenges will mount in the coming years, from China’s rise in Australia’s region to inflation and lacklustre wage growth. Facing many of these problems, Boris Johnson will need more than luck if he is to avoid a similar fate.

 ?? ??

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from United Kingdom