The unthinkable is now being asked out loud: who will succeed Putin?
As the war in Ukraine drags on and the economy suffers, Russia’s elite are whispering about change
Vladimir Putin has given no sign of being willing to stand down, but even if he is not thinking about his succession, many in Russia are. Military reversals in Ukraine, political uncertainties at home and questions about his health all mean the elite is quietly discussing something that just a few months ago was unthinkable: what might life after Putin look like?
The Kremlin’s propaganda machine is spinning for all it is worth, painting Putin’s “special operation” as meeting its objectives, but it is important to distinguish between what the wider population is being told and what the elite know. His reputation has suffered serious damage. Even if at present Russian forces are making modest gains in the Donbas, there is no escaping the abject failure of his initial strategy, with its ambitious goal of seizing Kyiv and imposing a puppet government.
Putin may hope the West will lose its enthusiasm for supporting Ukraine, but even if sanctions are lifted tomorrow, the damage already done means Russia’s economy will take years to recover. Sanctions have helped push inflation up to almost 18 per cent, and by autumn this coupled with rising unemployment will become a serious
problem. Meanwhile, the army is having trouble finding men to replenish its ranks and the generals are fuming about Putin’s dithering about mobilising the reserves. Persistent rumours about serious health problems – speculation ranges from cancer to Parkinsons – contribute to a sense that Putin’s time is coming to a close.
There is little likelihood of Putin being toppled imminently – he is protected by a powerful security apparatus that depends on setting multiple agencies to watch and counter each other. But sooner or later, his health may falter or some crisis will make enough of the elite turn against him. Then who will replace him?
If Putin gets to choose, he is likely to pick someone whom he thinks he can trust with his security and his legacy. This might be someone like Alexei Dyumin, one of his former bodyguards and now governor of Tula region. But it is questionable whether the rest of the elite would accept another strongman.
Once, defence minister Sergei Shoigu – one of Putin’s closest allies – looked a plausible alternative, but his star has been tarnished by the military’s poor performance. Still, he is a wily survivor and cannot be ruled out.
If Putin does not get to choose, it is likely that the succession will be shaped by behind-the-scenes deals between the elites. They will try to ensure whoever emerges as president will be much less personally powerful than Putin. The issue is there is no single dominant power bloc ready to impose their candidate when the time comes.
He – and it probably will be he – may be a sharp-elbowed chairman of the board, someone to broker consensus within this ruling coalition of spooks, generals, businesspeople and bureaucrats. This could be a technocrat like prime minister Mikhail Mishustin, or Moscow’s mayor Sergei Sobyanin.
Alternatively, it might be a mere figurehead, a puppet. Erstwhile president and prime minister Dmitry Medvedev is trying to reposition himself as a tough guy, but is still a lightweight figure who might suit such a role. So too might deputy presidential chief of staff Sergey Kiriyenko.
Whatever happens, that candidates are being discussed at all suggests even Moscow’s elite don’t think Putin will restore his old authority. One way or another, his days are now numbered.