Leadership contenders must commit to early election or risk complete system breakdown

The Conservatives have lost moral authority and lack the democratic legitimacy to form an effective administration. At the earliest opportunity, leadership candidates should commit to holding a general election within six months. While this could invite electoral Armageddon, it is a risk worth taking to avoid complete breakdown in our political system.

Many Conservative MPs will view this as madness. But let us send them a message from the real world: politically and morally, you cannot spring brutal austerity on hard-pressed families as a result of your own stupidity without seeking their consent. Not without making them angrier than ever before.

Entering No10, Liz Truss had just enough democratic legitimacy to govern without a general election. A constant senior figure within an 80-seat majority government, she outlined a policy manifesto of sorts in the leadership election and was the clear winner in a long contest. Her unwritten contract with the public was to govern along these lines.

Whether her mini-Budget breached this contract is debatable. But the policies announced and floated in the aftermath by her new Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt – with the prospect of unexpected and enormous spending cuts, and a reduction of government help to mitigate rising costs – absolutely did. There is no mandate for the sorts of policies Conservative candidates seem to be considering.

They are behaving like government is their own private club, from which ordinary voters are excluded.

The last leadership campaign was an embarrassment, with candidates talking about niche obsessions like gender identity, while ordinary voters looked on, waiting to hear something relevant about gas bills. This campaign looks set to be even worse.

This has not gone unnoticed by voters. The polls are a disaster. In our focus groups last week, voters from a range of backgrounds were united in their hostility to the Conservatives. They were angry, horrified, and frightened about the near future. They said this government has run its course; it is more interested in saving its own skin than helping ordinary people. Overwhelmingly, they wanted their say in a general election.

Some will write this off as a temporary “Truss problem”. Sadly not. A rapid summary of our focus groups in the past year would read like this: “They betrayed us by partying, while locking us down; then they covered it up; then they fired the PM without asking us who we wanted instead; then their leadership contest ignored all the issues we care about; then they brought in someone we had never heard of and did not like the look of.”

It gets worse: “After she won, she introduced a Budget for bankers and bosses; then her incompetence meant our mortgage rates rocketed and pensions were put at risk; then they announced massive spending cuts; then they told us the lights might go out in winter; then they got rid of the new PM; now they might bring back the clown we wanted gone in the first place; and they will probably destroy our living standards; and they will not even ask our view.”

Is an early election really a risk? Let us consider risk from the other direction. You cannot flip from tax cuts to brutal austerity in a week. Austerity without an election would lead to a breakdown in our political system.

People jump to the prospect of riots. I fear some physical disorder would be inevitable, even as most people would condemn it and want it put down.

I am, however, talking about something more fundamental. A breakdown would see the Cabinet pulling levers of government that had no impact anymore. We would see more strikes; stasis in the civil service; disobedience from public sector workers; a growth in extremist parties; and a flight of investment from the UK.

And then the Conservatives would be wiped out anyway.

Locked away in their private club, the Conservatives have completely lost touch with public opinion and the national interest.

James Frayne is founding partner of the opinion research agency Public First

‘Our focus groups say this government has run its course. Overwhelmingly, they want to have their say’