The Tories may not avoid the fate of their Canadian cousins

Divisions and populism saw the PC party go from a majority to two seats

If you think the Tories can’t be wiped out, think again. Canadian Conservatives looked down the barrel of a similar gun 30 years ago. The starting point can be traced to a successful period of Canadian Conservative political rule. (Sound familiar?) Brian Mulroney won two consecutive majority governments (1984, 1988) with the Progressive Conservatives (PCs). The former remains the largest margin of victory in our political history. He slashed public spending, kept taxes low, privatised crown corporations, created a free trade deal with the US, fought against South African apartheid and built strong relationships with Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.

Alas, Mulroney was forced to step down in 1993, after a recession that damaged the economy and eliminated his tax-cutting achievements. Citizens were furious over a goods and services tax they saw as costly and unnecessary. Constitutional issues with Quebec created a massive political divide. The PM was also blamed for cracks in Canada’s Conservative movement. Conservatives in western provinces were furious at what they viewed as kowtowing to Quebec on matters constitutional. They resented the sales tax, the favouritism towards the East (Ontario and Quebec), and were fed-up with the Mulroney PCs.

This led to the rise of Preston Manning’s Reform Party. Originally rooted in Western-based populism, it evolved into a Right-leaning party on a national scale. Many Conservatives who supported low taxes, a small state and individual freedom saw Reform as the viable political option.

Mulroney’s replacement also turned out to be a dud. Kim Campbell had nearly been anointed during the PC leadership race as a Thatcher-like figure. Her popular appeal initially burst at the seams. But within days of calling a new election, it all came crashing down. Her unpolished demeanour and straight-from-the-hip speaking style became liabilities. This was no powerful Iron Lady; more of a sophomoric Plastic Toy.

Jean Chrétien’s Liberals won a majority government on October 25 1993. Lucien Bouchard’s separatist Bloc Québécois won 54 seats to form the opposition, followed by Manning’s Reform at 52. Campbell oversaw the biggest collapse of a major political party in the Western hemisphere: the PCs went from 157 seats to two.

This result led to 17 years in the political wilderness for Canada’s Conservatives. Reform became the Canadian Alliance and grew stronger. The once-mighty PCs became a political rump. With a disunited Right, the Liberals achieved multiple majorities with little effort or struggle.

Things have thankfully settled down. Stephen Harper’s Canadian

With a disunited Right, the Liberals achieved multiple majorities with little effort or struggle

Alliance merged with Peter MacKay’s PCs in 2003. The Conservative Party of Canada was formed, and Harper was elected leader in March 2004. Within two years, he became Prime Minister and led a well-respected Conservative government for almost a decade.

Do British Conservatives really want to tread a similar path? Imagine a scenario where the party implodes. Several new or existing Right-leaning parties could split the vote. Labour could secure back-to-back majorities. The future of UK conservatism would be a huge question mark. It’s a terrible journey that no Canadian Conservative would ever recommend to a British cousin. Avoid it at all costs during the Tory leadership race and beyond.

Michael Taube, a columnist for Troy Media and Loonie Politics, was a speechwriter for Stephen Harper