A strong economy is the best form of defence

Vladimir Putin has decided to make Britain public enemy number one, accusing the UK of being behind the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines last month and for facilitating Ukrainian strikes on Russian ships in occupied Crimea. These are “false claims of an epic scale”, said British officials, telling us far more about what’s “going on inside the Russian government than it does about the West”.

Indeed, Russia is on the back foot, fighting to hold on to the lands illegally seized in eastern Ukraine. Its military stocks are depleting; it has been forced to mobilise soldiers who plainly do not want to serve (thousands have tried to go abroad). Putin faces growing criticism from his own population, even from the elite – as symbolised by the flight to Lithuania of a critic rumoured to be his god-daughter.

It fits the Kremlin playbook to deflect with disinformation, to make Russia out to be the victim of a British-led conspiracy, as if Moscow was just going about its business when it attempted to carve up Ukraine.

For all Putin’s pathetic bluster, however, he remains highly dangerous – be it his demented threat to use nuclear weapons or the fact that, economically, he still holds a knife to the world’s throat. Nord Stream reflected an attempt by a generation of European statesmen to integrate Russian energy into their economies, exposing them to blackmail. This disastrous error is now clear to see. And Moscow has announced that it is suspending its agreement to ensure the continued export of Ukrainian food, which will be a nightmare for poorer nations and is likely to raise prices.

International and domestic crises are thus linked. The new Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, must support Ukraine to the hilt because the cause is just – but it’s also true that energy and food markets will only recover when the conflict is resolved. And given that Russia shows no sign of backing down, Putin is only going to place more pressure on the UK economy.

That’s why it is absolutely vital to get the right balance in the coming November statement. As much as possible, higher taxes that add directly or indirectly to the cost of living crisis must be avoided and fiscal consolidation focused on cutting spending in real terms. There are plenty of areas and numerous projects, some of them signed off by Boris Johnson at the height of his profligacy, that can be trimmed.

Longer term, it is vital that the PM, who laid out his vision for faster growth in his Mais Lecture earlier this year, remembers that a stronger, more buoyant economy is also great for national security. Without economic success – requiring untethered private sector capital, innovation and risk-taking – the West risks gradually being ground down by aggressive autocracies.