Why midterm votes matter to the future of US
When are the midterm elections and why do they matter?
On Nov 8, voters across America will go to the polls in the first midterm elections of Joe Biden’s presidency.
The outcome will have a profound impact on the direction of the US for the next two years. If the president’s party does not hold majorities in the two houses of Congress, it becomes very difficult to pass legislation.
How does the election work?
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of Congress, are being contested.
About a third of the 100 seats in the Senate are also up for election, as senators, two from each of the 50 states, are elected to six-year terms on a rolling basis. In addition, many states synchronise local elections, meaning there are races taking place for the governorships of 36 states.
What are the races to watch?
The Senate is currently split 50-50. As vice-president, Kamala Harris, holds a casting vote, meaning Democrats have control. A swing of just one seat would give the Senate to the Republicans.
The closest Senate seats up for election in 2022 include Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida and Colorado.
One of the best chances for the Republicans is in Georgia, where Trump-backed Herschel Walker, a former American football star, is taking on Raphael Warnock, the sitting Democrat senator.
What do the latest polls say?
According to polls, the likeliest scenario is that Republicans take control of the House. FiveThirtyEight, the polling website, says the Senate is a “toss-up” with Democrats “slightly” favoured to win, but Republican chances are rising.
It will all come down to a handful of closely fought seats. If, as expected, the Republicans win the House, Kevin McCarthy will replace Democrat Nancy Pelosi as Speaker.
What are the main issues for voters? Democrat voters, particularly women, appear to have been motivated by the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v Wade, which has led to abortion restrictions in a number of states.
Mr Biden says the first thing he would do if the Democrats hold Congress is sign a law guaranteeing abortion rights across the country. Polls show Democrats are also concerned by “threats to democracy”, in particular last year’s US Capitol riot.
Republican voters are more motivated by inflation, crime, and illegal immigration.
When will we know the results?
You will likely see results the night of Nov 8 or early the next day. If the tallies are close in some crucial races, it may take us longer to know the final results.