Putin ponders gamble of second call-up to bolster army

President paves the way for new mobilisation – but it is likely to spark a backlash from war-weary Russians

WILL he, or won’t he? That is the question hanging over the Kremlin this week as Vladimir Putin mulls a second wave of mobilisation for Ukraine.

Ukraine has warned for weeks that up to half a million fresh troops could be summoned to fight for Russia. While the Kremlin continues to deny plans, it has just dropped a rule that exempted fathers of three or more children from mobilisation.

Military commissars are reported to be drawing up lists of fighting age men. Factory managers have been asked which workers can be spared to fight.

Now Russia’s MPs have proposed a law that will give the National Guard more power to enforce military draft orders and another to confiscate property from Russians who flee abroad.

The Moscow mayor’s office is said to be hiring more staff to deal with conscription, while the holidays of key civil servants have reportedly been cancelled. Rumours of martial law are spreading on influential social media channels.

Putin even hinted that he was close to ordering a second mobilisation when he visited a St Petersburg factory involved in military production last Wednesday, telling anxious workers that they were exempt from a call-up.

Experts said that a second mobilisation would present major risks. “The Kremlin, Putin and the people around Putin are aware of the political costs to everything that they do,” said Professor Mark Galeotti, a Russia analyst.

Last September’s mobilisation caused shock and dented people’s confidence in the Kremlin. Many of those 320,000 mobilised men are now dead.

Over the past year, the Kremlin has switched domestic propaganda tactics. It still refers to its invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation” but it now frames it as an essential fight for survival against the Nazi-supporting West.

In other words, it is steeling ordinary Russians to perform their duty and make the same sacrifices as were made in the Second World War.

Analysts have said that the Kremlin plans to test the West’s resolve by continually reinforcing its army. “If Russia announces another wave of mobilisation and expands its armed forces, then the war in Ukraine will last years,” said Konrad Muzyka, head of the defence consultancy Rochan.

Kremlin dithering over renewed mobilisation may betray division in Moscow. Its Wagner mercenary force has around 50,000 men fighting in Ukraine and will be difficult to expand.

An alternative may be to throw Russia’s conscripts into the fight. Each spring and autumn, Russia conscripts around 120,000 into the army for 12 months. The Kremlin could extend this conscription to 24 months, but this would stir widespread anger.

“Conscripts are just kids who have been sent to complete their national service and Putin knows full well that there would be a massive political backlash to using them,” said Prof Galeotti.