Xi Jinping’s dream of world domination is over

China’s population has fallen by around 850,000 since 2021 – its first decrease since 1961. This wasn’t expected to happen until 10 years hence. The fact it’s happened now is yet further proof that Chinese Communist Party (CCP) policies are incapable of generating economic growth at levels needed to achieve Beijing’s superpower aspirations. On the contrary, Xi Jinping’s incompetence increasingly undermines the wellbeing of the Chinese population, the stability of the CCP regime and, by extension, peace and security in the world at large.

CCP policies have led to disastrous demographic imbalances which may make it impossible to turn around China’s economic stagnation. A litany of errors began in 1980 when the one-child policy was cruelly enforced. In hindsight, this crude venture failed to address underlying issues, and left a bitter legacy. After 35 years, China had 50 million excess males and a rapidly increasing elderly population with few or no descendants to support them.

Following Xi’s rise to power, the rules were changed, first legalising two and, later, three children. But norms had shifted beyond the CCP’s capacity to alter them. Marrying later was now an economic necessity, and massive increases in the cost of housing, education, healthcare and looking after dependant relatives meant that many could not afford one child, let alone three. The proportion of older people continues to rise with 260 million Chinese citizens aged over 60.

From 2014 to 2021, the working age population dropped by 11 million. But not all of them are in productive work. For years before the pandemic, the Chinese domestic economy had been quietly stagnating. Potemkin-style lockdown policies that crippled the economy without lifting immunity levels then paralysed economic activity. Xi’s draconian assault on private tech entrepreneurs has sent the sector best suited to employing educated young people into decline. By July last year, youth unemployment reportedly peaked at 20 per cent. The inflated construction and property sectors have imploded, and debt has reached unsustainable levels.

Xi knows urgent steps are needed to revive the economy. His formula for success is a frankly contradictory model called the Dual Circulation Economy. With the latest virus surge worsening the crisis at home, the economy is unlikely to make headway in the near future. China still depends on trade with the US, Europe and other increasingly cautious or hostile free world partners more than it does on expedient pseudo-allies in Russia and the Middle East, so the sunny uplands of world economic domination are still far out of reach, perhaps for ever.

Despite this, years of propaganda, bribery, ignorance and greed still perpetuate the myth that the rise of China is inevitable. In reality, its future depends on a vibrant economy led by educated young workers. This cohort is, however, increasingly pessimistic – even despairing; many refuse to marry, let alone have children. Some have publicly challenged the legitimacy of single-party rule, even of Xi himself.

Abroad, China openly challenges the free world with its threats to Taiwan, adventurism in the Indo-Pacific and de facto endorsement of Putin’s war crimes. This has effectively wiped the slate clean of Xi’s proselytising that China is the US’s rightful replacement as the dominant world power. Xi cannot afford a war over Taiwan, even without the sanctions that would result, as he cannot revive his economy without access to free world markets.

His “China Dream” of world domination is over. The cost of massive armament to threaten Taiwan is impossible to justify, and an invasion even more so. Let us hope there is rational substance behind the recent reduction in Xi’s bellicose rhetoric.

A stagnant economy and falling population will not be fixed by China’s failing leaders

Xi’s assault on private tech has sent the sector best suited to employing educated young people into decline