Northern Ireland cannot remain a colony of the European Union
The Belfast/Good Friday Agreement makes clear that cross-community consent should be the foundation for all political arrangements in Northern Ireland. But all consensus has been shattered by the implementation of the protocol, which is divisive constitutionally, damaging economically and undemocratic. Not a single unionist elected representative in Northern Ireland supports these arrangements and that is a view widely shared in the Tory party. The protocol was foisted on Northern Ireland without consent – a fact recently acknowledged by the Irish Taoiseach.
It is a matter of regret that successive UK governments did not heed the warnings that pursuing such a deal with the EU would threaten the economic and constitutional integrity of the UK and lead to political instability in Northern Ireland. The protocol was deemed necessary to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. However, it is having a deeply adverse impact on the internal UK market and is consequently damaging the integrity of the UK.
The economic, social and constitutional damage that is being done to the UK as a whole, and to Northern Ireland in particular, cannot continue. The protocol cannot be tinkered with; it has to be removed and replaced by other arrangements that respect the UK’s integrity and protect the EU single market. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is clear that there will be no basis for restoring an executive or assembly until the debris of the protocol is removed once and for all. Recent court judgments have proved that the next round of devolved ministers would be under a duty to implement the legal requirements of the protocol to the letter, baking in the damage that has already been done.
There is no prospect of powersharing being restored in Northern Ireland under the status quo. Yet while senior members of the Cabinet were exchanging warm words with their EU counterparts last week – claiming to be engaged in constructive negotiations – Defra ministers were taking decisions that will bed in the protocol.
On the one hand, it is claimed that negotiations are edging closer to finding a solution with Brussels, but on the other hand, steps are being taken to implement key protocol provisions that until now had been resisted. This is a peculiar approach that casts doubt over the likelihood of any negotiated settlement at all, let alone one capable of restoring the economic and constitutional integrity of the UK.
The ultimate test of any deal will be whether it ends Northern Ireland’s semi-colonial status as a client of the EU, automatically accepting EU laws without any input from elected representatives. That is a fundamental problem that can’t be fudged. A deal should address not only the symptoms of the protocol by reducing the level of checks. It must also resolve the root cause of those checks, namely the fact that Northern Ireland is trapped in EU single market rules, semi-detached from the rest of the UK and subject to the constant threat of future regulatory divergence with Great Britain.
The vast majority of trade in goods from Great Britain is destined for, and stays in, Northern Ireland. It is time to take those goods off the negotiating table. Where goods are destined for the EU, the solution is mutual enforcement, as advocated by the Centre for Brexit Policy. Each side would retain regulatory autonomy within its territory, while enforcing regulations of the other party for goods leaving that territory and crossing the border.
Ultimately, an agreement that serves merely the short-term interests of the UK and EU but does not represent a lasting settlement between both those parties and all traditions in Northern Ireland will be futile. Unionist politicians won’t accept it. It will be a failure in statecraft of historic proportions. British negotiators should press the case for mutual enforcement. The UK should settle for nothing less.
Tinkering with the protocol is not enough. It has to be scrapped and replaced