Forbes could have saved the SNP – but now has to watch it crumble

Political parties across the world have long envied the status of Britain’s Conservatives as the United Kingdom’s “natural party of government”.

The Tories were in power, either alone or in coalition, for 67 years of the 20th century. In that time, they were often unmatched in Britain in messaging, organising and discipline.

The 21st century revival of the SNP changed all that. In the past two decades, the nationalists and their campaigning zeal have become so dominant in Scotland that Nicola Sturgeon is often accused of running a one-party state.

But 48 Westminster seats held by the party are now under threat after the election of Humza Yousaf, who was almost immediately hit by the news that Peter Murrell, Ms Sturgeon’s husband, has been arrested in connection with an investigation into the SNP’s finances.

Mr Yousaf ’s challenge is that he is an unapologetic Sturgeon continuity candidate. His views on the route to independence for Scotland and reforms to gender identity are those of his former boss, and his Cabinet is stacked with her political allies, who lent him support during last month’s leadership contest.

But with the party floundering in the polls, just five points ahead of Scottish Labour, and its finances under review, SNP members will be wondering whether an extension of the Sturgeon project was the right decision.

For much of the leadership race it was Kate Forbes, the former Finance Secretary, who led the opinion polls and attracted the shortest bookmaker odds. Her campaign contained plenty of red meat, including pledges to build roads, increase social worker pay and

Her socially conservative views concerned members who like to view their party as more modern and liberal

establish a ferry route to mainland Europe. But her socially conservative views, especially on same-sex marriage and transgender rights reform, concerned members who like to view their party as more modern and liberal than Labour, the Tories or the Scottish Liberal Democrats. She was too different to the old regime.

What the SNP missed is that many of the policy decisions of that Sturgeon government – and its power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Green Party – were not that popular.

Two of the main elements of Ms Sturgeon’s Gender Recognition Reform Bill, which Mr Yousaf has pledged to pursue again, are opposed by the majority of voters. Support for independence is consistently lower than for unionism.

The SNP’s dominance of the centre-Left is also under threat from a resurgent Scottish Labour Party, which has benefitted from the charisma of Anas Sarwar and the defenestration of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the national party.

Sir Keir Starmer, his replacement, is eyeing formerly Labour-held seats in Scotland as a possible route to a majority in Westminster at next year’s general election, and is campaigning on domestic issues like education and health where the SNP’s record falters.

Ms Sturgeon was a gifted politician and many voters who disagreed with her will be disappointed with her departure. But after nine years in power, her project was losing Scotland’s confidence.

The key to the Conservative Party’s ability to win elections is its ruthless capacity for reinvention – from Europhile to Brexiteer and austerity Osborne to big-state Johnsonism.

Ms Forbes could have been that reinvention – but now faces watching from the sidelines as her party disintegrates.