Delivery forecasts

FORECAST SCENARIOS METHODOLOGY

Scenario 1

The top 20 shipyards and shipyard groups are defined by total deliveries since 2010. Using the yearly percentage of the fleet delivered by the top 20 over the past three years (56 per cent), as well as the average deliveries of the top 20 shipyards over the past three years, we can plot estimates based on these numbers to 2026. This provides data for the graph opposite, far left.

Scenarios 2 and 3

Here we apply the initial workings above but factor in the current number of deliveries expected to be made in 2022. A percentage of these deliveries is subtracted from this expected total (a different percentage in each methodology) to simulate the number of projects that will roll over into 2023. The forecasts are then made utilising this new data.