JACK HOGAN OPERATIONS EDITOR & ANALYST

There’s no denying that the order books are healthy. Anecdotally, almost all shipyards are reporting long lead times and rampant interest from prospective buyers. The parallels with the last bubble of 2007/08 are apparent but, as my colleagues have pointed out, the comparisons only run so far, and we should rightly feel positive about the outlook. The industry is in a strong position. However, as we forge ahead, I can see some bear traps along the road and I’d be remiss not to highlight them here.

We may feel like we’re out of the woods regarding COVID and the disruptions it has inflicted, but as the Omicron variant has shown us, we need to be nimble and flexible, and this flexibility doesn’t always translate into existing new-build contracts.

I remain hopeful that Omicron will pass by in 2022 and our order books will be supported by a year of minimal disruptions, but I still have some trepidation. When the issues of manpower and potential continued shortfalls are combined with global supply-chain issues and geopolitical instability, we may be walking a more delicate tightrope than we thought, despite the proclamations of strength.

Likewise, the environmental legislative spider’s web is encroaching. The delay to the implementation of the IMO Tier III regulations are on their last stay of execution via the US Coast Guard ruling, and European emissions regulations are solidifying. The acceleration of this increasingly interconnecting regulatory framework may impede the industry on a shorter timescale than the few build cycles of growth that are forecast. JH