What the commentators said
Put yourself in the shoes of Kim Jong Un, said William Hague in The Daily Telegraph. The dictator knows his people are abject – they’re three inches smaller than South Koreans, on average, and their incomes 20 times lower. He knows his hold on power rests on tight control of the nation’s vast army – North Korea’s military budget is about a quarter of its GDP. Then you realise he has no option but to boost his nuclear arsenal. It doesn’t just keep the generals onside: it spares him the fate of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, who might have still been in power had they held on to nuclear weapons. Since he won’t back down, said Michael Burleigh in The Times, the best hope of curbing him lies with China. It “has North Korea firmly in its grip”: it takes 90% of its exports (mainly coal, iron ore and seafood) and supplies it with most of its oil. But the fact is Beijing has already stopped most imports, and is reluctant to play its last card – an oil embargo – which might topple Kim Jong Un. As Beijing sees it, his regime is “a bulwark against US encroachment in its Pacific backyard”. That’s why Trump’s threat to halt US trade with countries that do business with North Korea was so foolish, said Gideon Rachman in the FT. Aside from the fact that breaking off trade ties with China would “throw the global economy into chaos”, it’s the very last way of getting China to cooperate. It underlines the president’s “naivety about both trade and international relations”.
Still, Kim’s latest provocation could prompt a change of heart in Beijing, said Dylan Loh on The Conversation. It came as China was hosting a conference of the Brics nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), an “act of upstaging” that must have enraged President Xi Jinping. Perhaps he’ll now “take more decisive measures against his troublesome neighbour”. Don’t count on it, said Steve Tsang in The Observer. Xi has no desire to help the US out of a crisis; on the contrary, he wants to build up China’s influence in the region while reducing America’s. Besides, abandoning an old ally might be portrayed by opponents at home as weakness. “The ultimate driver behind Chinese policy is, as always, the interest of the Communist party.”
What next?
South Korea has warned that another North Korean ballistic missile test may be imminent. It could happen as early as this week when the regime celebrates Foundation Day, commemorating the creation of North Korea in 1948. Pyongyang this week described its previous test, which saw a missile overfly Japan, as “a curtain raiser to resolute countermeasures” against US provocation.
President Trump says he is now ready to allow the sale of “highly sophisticated military equipment” to South Korea and Japan. And Japan’s defence chiefs are seeking a record $48bn military budget to improve missile defence systems and develop longer-range missiles.