A crown prince’s desert dream
Saudi Arabia wants to build the world’s next megacity from scratch. Is it a bold vision or a grandiose folly?
How mega will this city be?
Saudi officials describe it as “the world’s most ambitious project”. An area of rocky desert and Red Sea coastline covering 10,000 square miles – about 17 times the size of London – has been earmarked for Neom’s development. According to The Wall Street Journal, which has seen leaked documents, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MbS, was mulling over how to overhaul the country’s economy when he saw on Google Earth that its northwest quadrant – near the border with Jordan, close to Egypt and Israel – was “a blank slate”. His plan for the area – a network of residential, business and industrial districts – is expected to cost $500bn (£412bn), and will function as its own city-state, largely separate from the rest of Saudi Arabia. It will even have its own parallel legal system.
What is MbS’s ambition for Neom?
Its official website says that it will be “a vision of what a New Future might look like”: Neom is derived from the Greek word for “new” and the Arabic word for “future”. It aims to be a community of a million people by 2030, “a leading global hub that exemplifies the future of human civilisation by offering its inhabitants an idyllic lifestyle combined with exceptional economic prospects”. Its technology will be eco-friendly and stateof-the-art: officials claim it will be powered entirely by solar and wind; there will be flying taxis and robotic maids (see box). The idea is to attract the “world’s greatest minds and best talents” – by offering top-quality jobs and living standards. It will be a tourist destination, too. The region has some 300 miles of pristine coastline, along with coral reefs, scenic islands and spectacular mountains. The climate is mild, by Saudi standards.
What is the thinking behind the plan?
It is a part of MbS’s “Vision 2030” strategy: the kingdom’s ambitious plan to pivot its economy away from reliance on oil. The petroleum sector accounts for over 80% of Saudi government revenues, 40% of GDP and 90% of export revenue. But falling oil prices in recent years, and uncertainty about future demand due to climate change, have prompted a shift in focus in Saudi Arabia. “An economic model based largely on oil, which worked for four decades, is no longer sufficient when 70% of the population is 30 years or younger, oil prices are volatile and the world is going digital,” Daniel Yergin, an energy strategist, told The New York Times. Youth unemployment, at around 25%, is a great concern. MbS hopes the city will, in time, contribute $100bn a year to the Saudi economy.
How would firms be lured there?
Neom aims to court global companies like Amazon with promises such as free energy and subsidised labour, according to The Wall Street Journal. The leaked documents make a series of bold promises: children will be schooled in the “leading education system on the planet”; the city will offer the “highest rate of Michelinstarred restaurants per inhabitant” in the world. Foreign firms have long avoided investing in Saudi beyond the energy sector because of its opaque legal system, corruption, and laws banning alcohol and regulating women’s conduct. Hence, it seems, the plan for a separate, “progressive” legal system. Its location is also a selling point: about 10% of global trade passes through the Red Sea, and Neom will be within a four-hour flight of 40% of the world’s population.
What has been built so far?
The plan was unveiled in 2017 and construction began last year. The small Neom Bay Airport – one of four planned – has opened for commercial flights. The first phase of construction – including an industrial city – is due to be completed by 2025. The government is building several palaces. But there have been setbacks. The killing of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Turkey in 2018, and the ensuing diplomatic crisis, gave potential investors cold feet. Advisers, including the architect Norman Foster, have distanced themselves from the project. Delays to a long-trailed flotation of Saudi Aramco, the state oil firm – slated to provide investment for Neom – were also damaging. When it did eventually float, Aramco’s valuation fell short of expectations.
What about the people who live there now?
Advertising materials say it will be built on “virgin” land, but 20,000 people live in the area designated for Neom. Most are members of the Huwaitat tribe, which has occupied the region for hundreds of years. In January, residents of the fishing village of Khurayba were told to hand over title deeds in return for compensation. This prompted a major backlash, and accusations of heavy-handedness. In April, a prominent critic of the government’s efforts to displace locals, Abdul Rahim al-Huwaiti, was shot and killed by Saudi special forces. A day earlier, he had posted a video that stated: “I would not be surprised if they come to kill me in my house now, and place a weapon next to me.”
Is Neom still viable?
It’s true that some cities in the region – Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha – have become major commercial hubs in a remarkably short time. But Saudi’s record on mega-projects is chequered. In 2005, plans for six new cities were announced. Only one made it off the drawing board: King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC), a $30bn project 90 miles from Jeddah. Today only 7,000 people live there, against a target of two million by 2035. And doubts about Neom are growing. Huwaiti’s shooting coincided with the pandemic; work has reportedly ground to a halt. Meanwhile, the oil price war that Saudi Arabia launched this year has led to plummeting prices and state revenues. Even so, says Kristin Diwan, an academic expert on the Gulf states: “MbS came to power dreaming about this place. He won’t shelve this project despite the economic and political headwinds.”