China and Taiwan: on the cusp of war?
Tensions in the Taiwan Strait are running dangerously high, said the South China Morning Post (Hong Kong). Since September, China has stepped up military exercises in the region: naval ships, fighters and bombers have breached the sensitive median line that runs down the middle of the Strait in order to intimidate Taiwan, which it regards as a breakaway province. Then, last week, “in the heat of an election campaign”, Donald Trump’s White House approved the sale of $1.8bn worth of weapons to Taiwan. The high-stakes move is emblematic of Washington’s “hardened stance” towards Beijing and its support for Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, whose party, the DPP, regards the island as an independent state. It also coincided with Taiwan accusing two Chinese officials of beating up one of its diplomats at an event in Fiji. Together, the developments have raised the risk of conflict in the region to “levels not seen in more than 20 years”.
“The historical turning point is getting closer,” said Hu Xijin in China’s nationalist Global Times (Beijing). If Taiwan’s leadership will not return it to its rightful status as part of China, “the only way forward is for the mainland to fully prepare itself for war”, and teach the Taiwanese secessionists
“a hard lesson”. Such rhetoric is typical of Xi Jinping’s China, said the Taipei Times. As the Covid-19 pandemic ravages the world, Xi sees a chance to achieve what he calls the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”: replacing the US as a “hegemonic power”. The world should not doubt his “willingness to wage war”.
China’s influence over Taiwan is in decline, said Brice Pedroletti in Le Monde (Paris): Tsai has won two solid majorities, in 2016 and January this year. Taiwan’s national identity is growing stronger, yet it remains wary of giving Beijing “an excuse to declare war”. Understandably so, said Michael Beckley in Foreign Policy (Washington). China’s military is ten times the size of Taiwan’s, and includes the world’s largest army. The US has long maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity” towards Taiwan, said Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times. In theory, it accepts that it is part of China, while also selling it weapons and giving the impression that it would defend it from Chinese attack. Beijing perhaps sees the current political turmoil in the US as a window of opportunity. It is unlikely to attack Taiwan: more probably it will just try to “erode Taiwanese morale and autonomy”. Even so, the risk of miscalculation is great; and the fallout could be apocalyptic.