What the commentators said

As a third wave of the pandemic grips the US ( see page 16), Trump – ignoring medical advice – has embarked on a “packed schedule” of rallies, said Josh Glancy in The Sunday Times. But it’s probably too late to make a difference: he failed to turn the tide in the final TV debate and still trails Biden in key states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. His sole chance of victory is for something truly extraordinary to happen – a “significant polling error or an unexpected bombshell”.

Those of us scarred by the shock of what occurred four years ago can relax, said Tim Alberta on Politico: “2020 is nothing like 2016.” The coalition that took Trump to power back then is in tatters: he trails among suburban white women, independents and the over-65s, who tended to loathe Hillary Clinton but feel good about Biden. And in 2016, a sluggish turnout helped Trump win key states with razor-thin majorities, whereas this year a record turnout is predicted. Even if the polls are out by some margin, Biden is on course for a crushing victory.

But if the result is the slightest bit tight, it could spark a political explosion, said Timothy Garton Ash in the FT. Trump has been “furiously sowing distrust” of the electoral process, notably by suggesting that postal votes, which are likely to favour Democrats, are too easily manipulated. It’s quite possible that Trump could be in the lead when polls close, before postal votes allowing Biden to overtake him are counted; that could pave the way for the final result being determined by a newly reconfigured Supreme Court ( see page 8). There’s also a real risk that attempts will be made to reduce turnout in mainly Democratic areas, said Jonathan Freedland in The Guardian. A scarcity of polling stations in some areas has already led to some voters having to queue for 11 hours to cast their ballot. On the face of it, it would be rational to relax and prepare for a Biden win. “Trouble is, elections are not a wholly rational business.”