What the commentators said
It’s time to start taking Russia’s nuclear threats seriously, said Peggy Noonan in The Wall Street Journal. Shaken by his side’s losses – estimated at 15,000 troops killed and 60 aircraft lost – Putin is using ever more alarming rhetoric. Last week, he described Russia’s test of its Sarmat II nuclear missile as “food for thought”, warning of a “lightning fast” response if the West directly intervenes in Ukraine. “We have all the tools for this,” he said. “We’ll use them, if needed.” Such threats betray weakness, said Mark Galeotti in the New Statesman. Russia’s army is mired in a disastrous war, its economy battered by sanctions, and its global standing irreparably damaged. “Its nuclear weapons – or at least their threat – remains one card Moscow can still play.”
Conventional wisdom says a nuclear conflict is “unthinkable”, said Allister Heath in The Daily Telegraph. What if that’s wrong? In the Cold War, there were several near-disasters: a Soviet submarine officer, for instance, defied an order to fire a nuclear torpedo on US ships. Soviet documents show the USSR was willing to use tactical (battlefield) nuclear weapons early in any conflict with Nato. Is Moscow today? What if Russia launched an “accidental” strike – even a conventional one – on a Nato ally such as Poland, or used tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
A Russian attack on a Nato state is still highly unlikely, said Max Boot in The Washington Post. “Putin isn’t suicidal, and he knows that the US response would be devastating.” Even a limited nuclear strike on Ukraine could see Nato use non-nuclear weapons, to “sink the entire Russian Black Sea fleet” and destroy much of its army. No, Putin is more likely to escalate with conventional military power, and could use Russia’s Victory Day celebrations on 9 May to announce “an expanded war effort”. Certainly, Russia’s chances of “a quick symbolic win” by that date have vanished, said Anthony Loyd in The Times. That gives the West time to get more military hardware into Donbas, eroding Russia’s advantage in heavy weaponry. In short, then, all sides are now gearing up for “a long-term armed struggle likely to last months, possibly years”.