What the commentators said

Erdogan knows better than anyone that earthquakes can have powerful political aftershocks, said Andrew Finkel in The Spectator. The botched response to a previous big quake in 1999 “destroyed the reputation of a whole political generation – including the then powerful Turkish military” – helping bring Erdogan and the AKP to power. Erdogan’s reputation was built on the aftermath. “He was the one who got public services literally back on tap”, rescuing voters from water shortages. Over its subsequent two decades in power, the AKP had ample opportunity to tackle Turkey’s “notoriously fraudulent construction sector” and make housing safer, said Constanze Letsch in The Guardian. “It chose not to.” Instead, it encouraged unfettered development while weakening independent oversight. Trade bodies that opposed dangerous projects were disparaged as “spoilsports, traitors, even terrorists”. Erdogan’s government deserves further blame for its flatfooted response to the quakes, said Elif Shafak in the FT. In many parts of the disaster zone, people were left to fend for themselves. “A father sat for hours holding the hand of his dead daughter, only her arm showing through the concrete.” At a time when every minute was critical, the state blocked access to Twitter, which prevented people trapped under buildings from tweeting their location.

This disaster could have a profound impact on Turkey’s national identity, said Borzou Daragahi in The Independent. As president, Erdogan has “increasingly doubled down on hardcore Turkish nationalism”: in recent weeks, he has threatened Greece with military action and challenged Sweden’s bid to join Nato. Now all the countries he railed against have rushed to Turkey’s aid, undermining his fierce advocacy of strategic autonomy. It’s always hard to predict the political fallout of natural disasters, said Mary Dejevsky in the same paper. The likelihood is that this one will weaken Erdogan, whose re-election chances were already in doubt owing to a serious economic crisis. But the quakes, conversely, could help Assad in Syria if afflicted areas start looking to his central government for help. They could also “speed the mooted Erdogan-Assad rapprochement, as the two leaders are pushed to join forces to address the emergency”.