Defence spending: UK on “a war footing”

In the years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the affluent liberal democracies treated themselves to “a holiday from history”, said Andrew Rawnsley in The Observer. In the absence of a major military threat, the West started turning its “Cold War swords into ploughshares”. In the 1980s, UK spending on defence accounted for 4%-6% of GDP. Today, it stands at 2.3%. The bulk of this “peace dividend” has gone into higher spending on pensions and healthcare. “I hope you enjoyed it while it lasted.” Today, from Ukraine to the Middle East to Taiwan, the world is more dangerous than it has been for decades. There is a distinct “1937 feel” in the air. Yet Britain’s Army is smaller than at any time since the Napoleonic wars; our Navy is mothballing ships due to crew shortages; and the RAF lacks sufficient operational combat aircraft to defend the nation. So Rishi Sunak was quite right last week when he said that Britain needs to be more serious about protecting its security.

At last, politicians are facing up to reality, said Con Coughlin in The Daily Telegraph. In a speech in Poland, Sunak pledged to put Britain on “a war footing” – and committed to an extra £75bn between now and 2030, taking defence spending up to 2.5% of GDP. It’s a welcome first step, even if there’s an ominous lack of detail about how the money will increase the military’s actual “fighting strength” and manpower. The chances of Sunak being in No. 10 to see it through look “vanishingly slim”, said William Atkinson on CapX. Labour has committed to the 2.5% target, although only when public finances permit. But whichever party is in power, we will be “hideously unprepared for our more dangerous world”. Raising defence spending by 0.3% of GDP is simply inadequate.

I was “intensely irritated” by Sunak’s announcement, said Paul Johnson in The Times. Not because I’m a “pacifist” or “peacenik”, but because of the obvious fiscal chicanery involved. The Government came up with the huge headline £75bn figure by implausibly assuming that defence spending would otherwise remain flat in cash terms all the way to 2030. So a series of limited increases – £4.4bn in 2028-29, for example – can be added together to reach £75bn. And this can apparently be funded just by sacking a few civil servants. “It doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes” to spot that the sums don’t add up. Certainly, Keir Starmer doesn’t believe them, said James Heale in The Spectator – he has refused to commit to the Tories’ 2030 timeframe. Sunak hopes to draw an electoral dividing line on defence. By sticking to its guns, Labour hopes to show that it is more trustworthy on the issue.