West London areas to be hit five times harder economically
IMPACT OF PANDEMIC AND BREXIT SET TO HIT AREA HARD
PARTS of west London are likely to be hit up to five times harder by the combined economic impact of Covid and Brexit than the rest of the capital, according to a local west London pressure group.
Of the nine London boroughs likely to still be badly affected by late 2021, five are located in a roughly 13-milelong, 10-mile-wide corridor across west London.
Those five areas are – from east to west – Kensington and Chelsea, Hammersmith and Fulham, Ealing, Hounslow and Hillingdon, says the pressure group Harrow and Hillingdon European Movement (HHEM).
The analysis is based on data published by an array of leading banks and other financial institutions.
“West London is likely to be particularly badly hit because the area is unusually vulnerable to both Covid and Brexit economic impacts,” said David Keys, Secretary of HHEM.
“Many companies and jobs associated with Heathrow have obviously been badly affected by the pandemic’s impact on the travel industry, but west London is also home to a particular concentration of industry, some of which will almost certainly be impacted by Brexit from January onwards.
“By the end of next year, Hounslow and Hillingdon are likely to still be down by more than 5% and more than 3% respectively, relative to 2019, in economic production terms (so-called GVA [Gross Value Added] – in effect a local version of GDP).
“Hammersmith and Fulham, Kensington and Chelsea and Ealing are all likely to still be down by around 2% in December 2021.
“In 2022 and 2023 and beyond, some reduced economic production will almost certainly persist – mainly because of continuing Brexit-related impacts. Some industry in west London depends at least partly on exporting goods to continental Europe – and, as from January next year, Brexit will affect the speed, costs and economic viability of doing that.
“What’s more, some west London industries rely on UK/EU supply chains – and they are also therefore likely to be adversely affected by slower and costlier export and import procedures between the UK and the continent.”
Across west London, there are more than 30,000 industrial jobs and thousands more jobs indirectly dependent on them.
Ealing, Hillingdon and Brent account for more than 75% of these west London industrial jobs – and at least some of them are likely to be hit longest by the deepening recession – because they are more vulnerable long-term to Brexit-related problems, rather than potentially shorter-term epidemicrelated ones, says HHEM.
“Although some jobs will be vulnerable, Brexit will affect most people not ultimately in unemployment terms, but through other forms of income reduction, through cuts in overtime, through under-employment and through impacts on the purchasing power of the pound,” said Mr Keys.
“In order to reduce these adverse economic impacts, it is essential that the government reaches a mutually beneficial agreement with the European Union that does the least possible harm to jobs, living standards and rights.”
Harrow and Hillingdon European Movement is a local west London organisation dedicated to promoting mutually beneficial cooperation between the UK and the rest of Europe.