Government hocus-pocus

You rightly draw attention to the six per cent (51 houses per annum) increase in Horsham’s housebuilding target.

Since so many of us agree with Roger Smith that Whitehall’s ‘algorithmic planning’ is hocus-pocus – or political arrogance – can we join forces to press government to replace the Standard Method with something which addresses genuine housing need, rather than designed to create market demand?

The more I study the Standard Method, the more it looks like a self-perpetuating vicious circle of exponential growth!

So the additional 51 houses for Horsham come from the ONS’s reported increase in the ratio of local house prices to incomes. Our ratio is now 13.9 (at September 2021). The Standard Method converts this ratio into an ‘affordability adjustment’ which is used to uplift the ONS’s local household projections.

Our adjustment is now 62 per cent, and inflates the baseline projection by 363pa, from 585pa to 948pa. Our uplift was 53 per cent, and the increase to 62 per cent gives us an extra 51pa.

But the rationale for the affordability adjustment is discredited, not least by the Bank of England. Empirical research shows that increasing supply does not bring prices down; they fall in response to increased interest rates. So the 62 per cent uplift, or 363 houses a year, is not necessary.

Setting targets too high for local need, say by 62 per cent, requires people to migrate into the area – on average 200+ households came into Horsham+Crawley combined per year, since 2010. This pushes up the ONS household projections, and so targets climb ever higher.

Andrew Griffith said in Parliament 18 months ago he felt the algorithm was ‘backward looking and selfperpetuating’. I would go further.

We’re all forced to ride the gravy train for developers to build in the most profitable areas. Driven by hocus-pocus. FENELLAMAITLAND-SMITH Chair, Save West of Ifield

The Mount, Ifield