Housing market has strongest start to the year since 2005

The housing market has had its strongest start to the year since 2005, according to an index.

Annual house price growth increased to 11.2% in January 2022, accelerating from 10.4% in December 2021, Nationwide Building Society said.

But it said it is likely that the property market will slow this year.

Reduced housing affordability is likely to dampen market activity and house price growth, as people’s household budgets are also squeezed by the wider surge in living costs, it warned.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said: “Annual house price growth accelerated to 11.2% in January, the strongest pace since June last year, and the strongest start to the year for 17 years.

“Prices rose by 0.8% month on month, after taking account of seasonal effects, the sixth consecutive monthly increase.”

Across the UK, the average house price in January was £255,556.

Mr Gardner added: “While theoutlookremainsuncertain, it is likely that the housing market will slow this year.

“House price growth has outstripped earnings growth by a wide margin since the pandemic struck and, as a result, housing affordability has become less favourable.

“For example, a 10% deposit on a typical first-time buyer home is now equivalent to 56% of total gross annual earnings, a record high.

“Similarly, a typical mortgage payment as a share of take-home pay is now above the long-run average, despite mortgage rates remaining close to all-time lows.

“Reduced affordability is likely to exert a dampening impact on market activity and house price growth, especially since household finances are also coming under pressure from sharp increases in the cost of living.

“Consumer price inflation reached 5.4% in December, its fastest pace since 1992.

“This is more than double the Bank of England’s 2% target, and inflation is set to rise further in the coming months as the energy price cap is increased.

“This rapid rise in inflation has been an important factor denting consumer confidence in recent months, especially how people see their own personal financial situation evolving, although as yet, this has done little to dent housing market activity.

“High inflation and growing confidence that the Omicron variant will not derail the wider economic recovery has led to increased expectations that policymakers will increase interest rates further in the months ahead.

“This will further reduce housing affordability if it feeds through to higher mortgage rates, although to date a significant proportion of the rise in longer term interest rates seen in recent months has been absorbed by lenders.”