If cheaper food is the goal, minister will be disappointed

As we begin the month of May it seems that April was one of the driest for quite some time and grass growth is slow, with cattle and sheep out grazing on many farms chasing every blade. It is of course of the highest quality in these circumstances and I have always thought that if you are not worried about grass at this time of year, there is a good chance it will be out of control later in May as growth takes off; this year?

Silage fields are another matter and whilst I saw silage made in northern France two weeks ago and a few fields of Italian ryegrass over here of late, overall silage fields are not looking good. They need warmer weather and some rain.

Meanwhile the countryside is in splendour now with all the blossom and wildflowers, especially the carpet of bluebells everywhere in the woodlands.

There is also concern over cereal crops if this dry weather continues and whilst rainfall in northern Scotland has been higher than average, in the south weather forecasts from the Met

Office indicate that this dry weather will continue with high pressure staying in charge. Fertiliser does need some rain to wash it in of course and expensive fertiliser is to be seen on the soil in cereal crops which will do no good at all.

Most water resources are at normal levels for this time of year, according to the Environment Agency, but cumulative rainfall over the last three months has been well below average. Maize crops drilled on dairy farms will also need a drink very soon, although on the heavier clay soils they have not been drilled as farmers wait for soil temperature to rise.

Farmers who have not turned cattle out yet are feeding increasingly expensive feed whilst they wait and many farmers will have seen an increase of around £40 per tonne this month as the increased cereal prices work their way through. Many have not applied as much fertiliser to their grass silage fields and are expecting less crop as a result, which could be expensive next winter if there is not enough; very difficult decisions to be made by everyone and no easy answers.

Progressive farmers will have bought forward and avoided most of the really high increases of late and will apply fertiliser as usual, otherwise they know that things could go wrong. It is interesting that fertiliser price has dropped from £1000/t to £750 due to lack of demand, it’s still three times the price it was a year ago, but that is rather better than four times the price which was impossible.

As if they have not got enough to contend with, Dr Zoe Davies, CEO of the National Pig Association, has warned of an elevation in animal rights groups’ activity of late. These people brazenly break into pig farms to take photographs or in one case recently install a CCTV camera, and there is often an increase in activity before the annual Pig Fair. The situation in processing has improved and whilst there is still a huge backlog of pigs on farm, some producers have now been able to clear their pens, but others are still in the same place. One of the challenges now, according to Zoe, is to understand why the backlog was not managed well.

All hens should have been given their freedom on bank holiday Monday after being compulsory housed since November due to avian flu. Whilst AI is still in circulation, protection zones remain in force for the outbreak areas and chief veterinary officer Christine Middlemiss said the time was right to relax measures. She thanked the industry for all the hard work which had gone into minimising the damage and numbers of outbreaks.

Supermarkets are under the cosh for announcing such huge profits and governments are criticising them for profiteering during difficult times. They want the retailers to help in the fight against cost of living challenge, but with the high street price war ongoing, I am afraid that intensifying it will mean one thing; an impossible time for farmers and suppliers. They will cut prices as usual at the expense of suppliers despite all the promises and platitudes.

We have seen it time and time again and why should it be any different this time; they have immense buying power and are not afraid to exploit it to the maximum. If they do this again, the result will be less British product and produce on the shelves and more imported food, reliance on which will catch-up with them in time and they will then have no choice but to pay the money and pass on the price increases; everybody loses.

There are fears by industry leaders, some politicians, the Food Standard Agency and others, that there is a growing fear on the back of food security high prices that there could be two undesirable outcomes for everyone. The first is that as 11 per cent of British households now experience food insecurity (the highest figures since before the pandemic); if it goes up much further there will be mass protests and the possibility of rioting. It seems extreme, but they point out civil unrest and rioting is directly linked to food security and I expect that the media will stoke the fire when it thinks the time is right.

The second is another food scandal such as the horse meat affair of a few years ago. Again when there is a crisis or an opportunity to make money, unscrupulous operators are more likely to seize the initiative.

In the meantime, Jacob Rees-Mogg (minister for Brexit opportunities) has suggested that we deregulate agriculture now that we have left the EU. Speaking to the European Scrutiny Committee, he suggested it was time to move away from the EU and divergence was not nearly enough; he wants the UK to break away from the EU’s stifling red tape. He has now postponed postBrexit border checks, which will increase the risk of diseases such as African swine fever arriving here. How does deregulation of agriculture fit with the manifesto commitment? They want higher welfare and environmental standards and yet for us to compete on a world market we need proper de regulation and not partial or selective de-regulation or we end up with the worst of both worlds. What will consumers think? What will other countries think? How will it affect trade? Many questions but given that this is another foil, it is best not to waste time on them.

What the minister is after is cheaper food and I’m afraid he is not going to get that as it is impossible. Food prices have not gone up all that much as yet as most of the increase are still working their way through production, but they will come and retailers can hold things back for a while, but need their shelves to be full. Many businesses will go to the wall and there will be a great deal of pain before retailers do this, but with less British meat and produce as a result, they will be in a more vulnerable position themselves at the end of it and our industry will have no money to re-invest in he future. Pic: Getty Images