Shades of industrial revolution in AI rise

CAN we compare the current revolution in robots and Artificial Intelligence (AI) with the introduction of machines in the early years of the first Industrial Revolution?

An Oxford academic thinks so. He is concerned ordinary working people could lose out badly with the mass introduction of robots and AI.

When water frames and spinning jennies eradicated the old ways of hand loom production, the weavers were thrown into poverty. Some, the Luddites, attacked and broke the machines that were taking away their livelihoods. Huge social distress was caused by the introduction of the new machines. History has damned the Luddites but they had a point.

One estimate is 47 per cent of current jobs in the US are at risk from automation because of AI. The gains of new technology will not be evenly distributed. It will take ages to benefit everyone. If you own the machines (the capital) then you stand to benefit from the new and cheaper production. If you don’t, you could suffer.

For Americans born in 1940,

90% ended up better off than their parents. For those born in 1980, the figure is down to 50 per cent.

Bristol is a key UK centre for robotics and technology so it is good and right we should engage in the public discussion about the distribution of future wealth and opportunity. Maybe the time for a Universal Basic Income is getting close, so everyone has a basic minimum floor. This will mean taxes on the wealth-producing machines. The key question is revealed as: who gets to keep the wealth created? What is a “fair” return on capital?

Maybe new machine owners will have to accept social obligations to others, and accept that they will be taxed more to pay for the welfare of others. If these predictions of machine-generated wealth come about, then it will mean that a lot more people will have more time on their hands.

They will need to spend more time in cultural and social matters, so we could well see the rise of new forms of engagement (more volunteering, more not-for-profit enterprises) and more time spent pursuing education and cultural creation.

One thing is for sure: the future ain’t what it used to be! Paul Thompson,

Bristol